60后婴儿潮退休背景下的养老和退休政策选择  

The Choice of Pension and Retirement Policy when Post-60s Baby Boom Start to Retire in China

作　　者：杨华磊[1] 黄少安[2] 温兴春 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院 [2]山东大学经济研究院

出　　处：《经济评论》2016年第1期53-64,共12页Economic Review

摘　　要：本文采用动态规划的方法,考察了不同养老制度和退休方案对产出和效用的影响。结果发现,如果基于产出最大化目标,应实行即时延迟退休和家庭养老的制度组合。如果基于效用最大化目标,应实行不延迟退休和家庭养老的制度组合;考虑到家庭效用和社会产出的替代性,综合社会公平和经济效率,短期应实行逐步延迟退休和积累制的养老制度组合,长期应实行即时延迟退休和积累制的养老制度组合;从长期来看,对于总产出,延迟退休的作用相对较大,对于人均效用,养老制度的作用较大。当然在要素使用效率不变情况下,随着人口世代更迭引致适龄劳动人口数量的减少,养老负担的加大以及资本红利的消失,无论实行哪种养老和退休方案,都无法改变未来经济增速急剧下降的趋势。为此,在短期稳定经济形势的前提下,长期内必须转变经济增长方式,并寻找经济发展的新引擎。According to the dynamic programming model,this paper examines the effects of different pension and retirement systems on the output and utility. The study finds that,in terms of output maximization,immediately delayed retirement and family pension system are better; If based on the maximization target of per capita utility,we should choose the combination of family pension system and undelayed retirement; If both considering fairness and efficiency,we should choose the combination of the accumulation family pension system and immediately delayed retirement. At the same time,in the long term,the effect of delayed retirement is relatively large on the total output,and the effect of the pension system is relatively strong on the per capita utility. Of course,no matter what kind of pension system or retirement plan,according to the theoretical model framework,they cannot change the future trends of economic growth. Therefore,in the long term chinese economy must change its transition,and find a new growth engine.

关 键 词：退休制度 养老政策 60后婴儿潮 社会产出 家庭效用 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F249.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]