货币政策对农村居民消费的非线性影响研究——基于PSTR模型的实证分析  

The Nonlinear Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on the Consumption of China's Rural Residents:An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Smooth Transition Model

作　　者：封福育[1] 赵梦楠[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学经济学院 [2]云南民族大学管理学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2016年第1期92-98,共7页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金"产业结构升级视角下我国居民消费率的决定因素研究"(项目编号:11CJY076);国家社科基金"过剩条件下促进经济适度发展的结构优化理论与对策研究"(项目编号:13CJL015);国家社科基金"自媒体时代社会治理困境与包容性制度建构研究"(项目编号:14BJL006);教育部人文社科基金"近似单整面板数据模型诊断理论及应用研究"(项目编号:10YJC790394)

摘　　要：在当前我国内需不振、农村居民消费低迷的背景下,探讨货币政策对农村居民消费的影响不仅具有重要的理论价值,同时也有积极的现实意义。笔者首先基于动态优化理论,构建了货币政策对农村居民消费影响的理论模型,而后利用我国各省份1990—2012年的经验数据,建立平滑转换面板数据回归模型,实证分析货币政策对我国农村居民消费的影响。研究结果表明:货币政策对农村居民消费的影响具有非线性和非对称性特征。当实际利率低于阈值时,货币政策对农村居民消费的影响较小,反之则反;当实际利率在阈值附近时,货币政策对我国农村居民消费的影响程度在高低两个机制之间平滑转换,且机制转换速度非常快。最后,笔者提出:在货币政策实施过程中,应提高货币政策透明度,帮助公众形成合理的预期;针对不同的经济环境和利率水平实施不同的货币政策;大力提高农村居民的收入水平。In the background of sluggish domestic demand and low level of consumption of rural residents,discussing the impact of monetary policy on consumption of rural residents not only has significant theoretical value but also has important practical implications. Based on the framework of dynamic optimization theory,the author establishes a model to analyze the relationship between monetary policy and the consumption of rural residents. Then we use the panel data for 30 Chinese provinces during 1990—2012 with panel smooth threshold model to analyze the relationship between monetary policy and the consumption of rural residents. The result shows that the impact of monetary policy shocks on the consumption of rural residents is nonlinear and asymmetric. When the real interest rate lower than the threshold level,the impact of monetary policy shocks on the consumption of rural residents is relatively less and vice versa; when the real interest rate near the threshold value,the impact of monetary policy shocks on the consumption of rural residents smooths transition between the two mechanisms. According to this,the author puts forward certain corresponding policy recommendations. Firstly,during the implementation of monetary policy the government should increase the transparency of monetary policy to help the public form reasonable expectations. Secondly, the government should implement different monetary policy under different economic environment and interest rates. Thirdly,the government should strive to improve the income of rural residents.

关 键 词：货币政策 消费 非线性效应 平滑转换面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]