中国“十二五”油气勘探开发规划目标后评估及“十三五”目标预测  

Target post-evaluation of China's "12^(th) Five-Year" oil and gas exploration and development planning and its "13^(th) Five-Year" target prediction

作　　者：潘继平[1] 娄钰[1] 王陆新[1] 

机构地区：[1]国土资源部油气资源战略研究中心

出　　处：《天然气工业》2016年第1期11-18,共8页Natural Gas Industry

摘　　要：在中国"十二五""十三五"两个五年规划交替之际,国际油气市场形势发生了巨大变化,开展"十二五"油气勘探开发规划目标后评估,对于科学合理编制"十三五"各类油气发展专项规划具有重要的意义。评估结果认为,"十二五"期间,全国油气勘探开发规划目标完成情况总体较好,但尚有差距:①石油年产量目标2×10~8 t超额完成、而储量目标65×10~8 t相差6.4%,天然气储量目标3.5×10^(12)m^3超额完成、年产量1 385×10~8 m^3目标相差6.2%;②非常规气规划目标完成情况相对较差,其中页岩气好于煤层气。新常态下,油气消费量增速放缓、油价暴跌、资源品位下降及统计口径的变化是导致"十二五"油气勘探开发部分规划目标未能完成的主要因素。预测结果表明,"十三五"期间,在国际油价介于50~70美元/桶的条件下,国内年均新增常规石油、天然气探明地质储量将分别为10.0×10~8~12.0×10~8 t、6 000×10~8~8 000×10~8 m^3;年均新增探明页岩气、煤层气地质储量将分别为1 000×10~8~2 000×10~8m^3、500×10~8~1 000×10~8 m^3;国内石油年产量将保持在约2.0×10~8 t;到2020年,天然气年产量将介于1 800×10~8~2 000×10~8 m^3,其中页岩气年产量将达200×10~8 m^3,煤层气年产量将达150×10~8 m^3。In the turn of 12^th and 13^th ＂Five-Year Plan＂ of China, the global oil and gas market changes greatly. In this regard, the target post-evaluation was conducted of the ＂12^th Five-Year＂ oil and gas exploration and development planning, which is of significant importance to scientifically and reasonably making the specific ＂13^th Five-Year＂oil and gas exploration and development target planning. The post- evaluation results indicate that, in the period of ＂12^th Five-Year Plan＂, the oil and gas exploration and development targets of China were satisfactorily completed, but some deficiencies still existed. For example, the target of oil production was overfulfilled, while the target of oil reserves （65×10^8 t） remained 6.4% outstanding. The target of gas reserves （3.5×10^12 m^3） was overfulfilled, while the target of gas production remained 6.2% outstanding. Moreover, the targets of unconventional gases were not satisfactorily completed - shale gas being better than coalbed methane （CBM）. Failures to fulfill some targets in ＂12^th Five-Year Plan＂ were primarily attributed to the slow- down of oil and gas consumption growth, sharp drop of oil price, downgrading of resources, and changes of statistic basis under the new normal. The forecast results suggest that, in the period of ＂13^th Five-Year Plan＂, given USD50-70/bbl of world oil price, China＇s annual average incremental conventional oil and gas in place will be 10.0×10^8-12.0×10^8 t and 6 000×10^8× 10^8 m^3 respectively, annual average incremental shale gas and CBM in place will be 1 000×10^8-2 000～ 10^8 m^3 and 500×10^8 -1 000×10^8 m^3 respectively, and annual oil production will be about 2.0×10^8 t. By 2020, China＇s annual gas production will approach 2 000×10^8 m^3 （shale gas： 200×10^8 m^3, and CBM： 150×10^8 m^3）.

关 键 词：中国 油气 勘探开发 产量 储量 非常规油气 “十二五”规划目标评估“十三五”规划目标预测 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]