工程项目施工图预算编制准确度风险管理  

Risk Management on Engineering Project Construction Drawing Budgeting Accuracy

作　　者：郭万莉 刘光凤[2] 周泽 

机构地区：[1]重庆航运建设发展有限公司,重庆401121 [2]重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆400074 [3]重庆中科建设(集团)有限公司,重庆400061

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2016年第1期68-72,共5页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71401019);国家社会科学基金(15CGL051);重庆市社会科学规划项目(2011YBGL112)

摘　　要：为了提高工程项目施工图预算编制准确度,从风险管理视角对其进行研究,首先运用抽样访谈调查法进行风险辨识,其次运用模糊统计法进行单因素风险估计,然后运用修正模糊多层次模型进行风险评价,最后通过算例验证所建立模型的可行性和有效性。研究结果显示,当前施工图预算编制准确度的整体风险以及其工程量、预算单价、费率取费标准、预算编制参与者等风险因素均处于风险大的状态,建议充分重视这些风险大的因素,采取措施降低风险,提高施工图预算编制准确度。实践结果显示,通过所构建模型确定的施工图预算编制准确度的风险状态,与实际情况具有一致性,有助于找出风险大的因素进行风险预控。In order to improve the engineering project construction drawing budgeting accuracy, it is studied from the perspective of risk management. Firstly, risk identification is carried out by applying sampling interview survey method. Secondly, risk assessment of single factor is carried out by applying the fuzzy statistical method. Thirdly, risk evaluation of overall risk is carried out by applying the modified fuzzy multi-level model. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by a numerical example. The research results show that the overall risk and its risk factors such as project amount, unit price of budget, rates of fee charging standard, budgeting participants are in big risk situation at present. Suggest paying sufficient attention to these big risk situations and take steps to reduce risk to improve construction drawing budgeting accuracy. Practical results show that the risk statuses that the proposed model determines are consistent with the actual situation and it is conducive to find out the big risk situations to be pre-controlled.

关 键 词：工程项目 施工图预算编制准确度 风险管理 修正模糊层次模型 模糊统计法 问卷调查法 

分 类 号：F423.1[经济管理—产业经济]