重大节假日火灾风险空间分布特征  

Spatial distribution characteristics of fire risk in the major holidays

作　　者：李国辉[1] 赵力增[1] 王颖[1] 郭歌[1] 李继宝[1] 

机构地区：[1]公安部天津消防研究所,天津300381

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2016年第1期112-117,共6页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71403254);公安部天津消防研究所科研计划项目(2015SJ-A-04)

摘　　要：为获取春节与国庆期间各地区的火灾风险分布特征,基于2004-2013年的统计数据,选取火灾起数、死亡人数、受伤人数、直接损失、烧毁面积和受灾户数6项指标,利用因子分析对6项指标进行命名与解释,得到火灾风险因子模型。根据方差解释量计算因子得分和综合得分,确定了31个地区的火灾风险水平。利用GIS建立火灾风险等级分布图,反映不同地区的火灾风险水平。结果表明,春节期间辽宁的火灾风险最高,国庆期间广东、江苏和浙江的火灾风险最高。In order to obtain the fire risk and spatial distribution characteristics of different regions in the major holidays, study on the fire statistics of the Spring Festival and National Day from 2004 to 2013 was carried out. Six indexes that can repre sent fire risk were chosen, including fire number, deaths, inju ries, direct losses, burned area, and affected families. The six indexes were clustered and explained by using factor analysis, and the factors score model was established. The quantitative results of fire risk in 31 provinces were calculated. Finally, the spatial distribution maps of fire risk were drawn by using GIS. The results indicated that the comprehensive score of Liaoning is the highest fire risk during the Spring Festival, while, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang show the highest fire risk during the National Day.

关 键 词：火灾风险 因子分析 GIS 空间分布 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU998.12[建筑科学—市政工程]