基于Agent仿真模拟方法的民族关系研究构想  

Research on the Ethnic Relationship Based on Agent Simulation

作　　者：郭涛[1] 阎耀军[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学管理学院,天津300387

出　　处：《未来与发展》2016年第1期62-67,共6页Future and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"基于政策模拟方法的社会稳定风险研究"(13ASH003);天津市教委科研计划项目"城市化进程中犯罪控制的政策模拟研究"(20142817)

摘　　要：随着经济社会改革的深入发展和国际环境的深刻变化,我国的民族关系也面临着越来越复杂的局面。如何更好地认识和把握这种复杂的形势,仿真模拟方法作为人类继理论推导、科学实验之后的第三种认识世界的途径,为我们提供了新的工具方法。本文拟将仿真模拟方法引入民族关系研究中,设想建立基于多Agent的民族关系仿真模型,并构建我国民族关系"平行系统"。通过建立民族关系仿真模型,可以对影响民族关系的机制和路径进行模拟仿真,并以此来研究内部参数变化与外部环境改变时各相关实体的行为及动态演化过程,从而可以模拟和调整相应政策投入的实施效果,分析民族政策的作用机制,为实现民族关系和谐提供政策建议。The ethnic relationship becoming more and more complicated with the deepening development of the economic and social reform and the profound change of the international environment, How to understand and grasp the complicated situation？ Simulation method, as the third way of understanding the world, has been accepted widely after the theoretical derivation and scientific experiment. Simulation method was introduced into the ethnic relations research in this paper, an agent based simulation model and a parallel system of the ethnic relations will be established in order to simulating the mechanism and path of the ethnic relations, with which the relevant groups and dynamic evolution with the internal and external parameters changed. The effects and mechanism of the ethnic relations policy can analysis by simulating and adjusting the model parameters provide the policy suggestion for the achieving harmonious ethnic relations.

关 键 词：民族关系 多主体仿真 平行系统 

分 类 号：C95[社会学—民族学]