基于气象区域自动站资料的精细化玉米适宜播种落区预报  

Sophisticated Area Forecast Suitable for Corn Planting Based on the Meteorological Regional Automatic Station Data

作　　者：张梅 陈玉光 富晓艳 关建 

机构地区：[1]辽阳市气象局,辽宁辽阳111000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2016年第3期151-159,共9页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：辽宁省气象局"玉米发育期预报方法研究"(2015SXB07)

摘　　要：为实现气象预报要向精细化方向发展,为农业生产提供精细化服务的目的,实现为当地政府及农业部门指挥、指导农业生产提供更直观、可靠的细化到乡镇的玉米适宜播种分布情况,通过分析辽阳地区2010—2014年24个区域自动站4—5月逐日平均气温与辽阳本站同期气温的关系,建立24个回归预报模型,借助于雨量图制作软件利用模型做出的预报,将全地区划分出适宜播种、较适宜播种和不适宜播种3个区域。经检验,24个预报模型相关系数均达0.01显著水平,回代与实况值变化趋势基本一致,回代和预报绝对误差（ABSE）和标准误差（RMSE）在0.2-0.7℃,可以用来预报24个乡镇的日平均气温。利用雨量图制作软件绘制等值线图,方法简单易掌握,易于推广。The study aims to carry out refined weather forecast and provide sophisticated area forecast which issuitable for corn planting at village and township level for local governments and agricultural sectors. 24 regression equations were established by the correlation analysis of the daily average temperature between 24 regional automatic stations in Liaoyang City and Liaoyang station from April to May in 2010-2014, the authorsmade the forecast with the model under the aid of rainfall drawing software and divided the whole region into 3areas： suitable for corn planting, comparatively suitable for corn planting and not suitable for corn planting.After inspection, the authors found that the correlation coefficient of the 24 regression equations all reached0.01 significant level, the variation trend of back substitution and actual value was consistent basically, theabsolute error（ABSE） and the standard error（RMSE） ranged between 0.2℃ and 0.7℃, which could be used toforecast the daily average temperature of 24 towns. The use of the rainfall drawing software is easy and can bepromoted.

关 键 词：区域自动站 预报模型 雨量图制作软件 玉米 播种区域 

分 类 号：S165[农业科学—农业气象学]