中国省域经济发展影响因素及其时空规律研究——基于GTWR模型  

Affecting Factors Research of Chinese Provincial Economic Development——Based on GTWR Model

作　　者：玄海燕[1] 张安琪[1] 蔺全录[1] 陈金淑[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学,兰州730050

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2016年第2期154-160,共7页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目编号:11261031);国家社会科学基金资助项目(项目编号:14XJY014)

摘　　要：文章基于2006~2013年中国省会城市数据,应用时空加权回归模型（GTWR）,将时间和空间信息纳入到模型之中,从空间异质性的角度考察我国各个省域的教育、FDI、固定资产投资、产业结构、进出口贸易对GDP的空间交互作用及影响差异。研究结果表明,各影响因素存在着不可忽视的个体差异,这种差异导致经济发展水平在时间,空间分布上具有显著的异质性特征;随着时间和空间的推移,教育对经济发展的促进作用不断增强并呈现出东高西低的格局;FDI对经济增长的推动作用不断增强并呈现出异质性特征;固定资产投资对各地经济增长贡献减弱;进出口贸易对各地经济增长贡献增强。因此,加强各地区教育水平,优化产业结构成为各地区经济均衡发展的关键。Based on the panel data of provincial regions of China during 2006- 2013, using the geographically and temporally weighted regression model （GTWR） to reveal the spatial effects of education, FDI, fixed asset investment, industry structure, import and export trade on GDP. The result shows that each factor, in different regions, has strong spatial heterogeneity. These differences make the level of economic show a significant characteristic of spatial heterogeneity. With the elapse of time and space, education increasingly promotes the economic growth, and its effects also appear to be higher in the east than in the west. FDI increasingly promotes the economic growth, and its effects also appear spatial heterogeneity. Fixed asset investment in the contribution of economic growth has gradually re- duced. Import and export in the contribution of economic growth has gradually strengthened. Therefore, strengthen the education level and optimize the industrial structure is the key to the economic development of the region.

关 键 词：GDP GTWR模型 空间异质性 空间自相关性 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]