基于LCC理论的电网损耗及其传导模型  

Power Grid Loss and Its Conducting Model Based on Life Cycle Cost Theory

作　　者：蒋利民[1] 韩永霞[2] 黄伟[1] 闫华光[1] 戴栋[2] 李立浧[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192 [2]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第12期55-62,共8页Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51377061);广东省自然科学基金资助项目(2014A030313249)~~

摘　　要：全寿命周期成本(LCC)分析是全寿命周期管理理念的核心.文中针对电网及其主设备开展了LCC精细化模型研究,在LCC模型中增加了损耗传导成本项,并引入了基于通货膨胀率预测的经济学修正方法.基于电网的特点(即总损耗的增加会引起发电侧成本的增加、下级电网损耗的增加会导致上级电网建设综合投资增加),提出了电网损耗传导模型,并研究了损耗传导成本在LCC中占比的计算方法.通货膨胀率预测采用差分自回归移动平均模型.以典型电网为例,基于上述LCC模型研究分析了电网各环节的损耗分布,提出了配电网节能的必要性和重要性.最后开展了损耗传导成本对电网LCC计算结果影响的实例分析,验证了损耗传导模型的实用性和工程应用价值.The analysis of life cycle costs( LCC) plays a key role in the concept of life cycle management. In order to develop a more precise LCC model for the power grid and its main equipment,the inflation rate prediction method and the loss conducting model are introduced into the LCC model. Based on the power grid characteristics that the increase of total loss will cause the cost of generation side to increase and the loss of subordinate power grid will lead to the raise of the comprehensive investment of above grid,a power grid loss conducting model is proposed,and a method to calculate the loss conducting cost-to-LCC ratio is put forward. In addition,the inflation rate is predicted by using the autoregressive integrated moving average( ARIMA) model. Then,the loss distribution in each part of a typical power grid is analyzed based on the above LCC model,and the necessity and importance of the energy conservation in the power distribution grid are pointed out. Finally,a case study on the influence of the loss conducting cost on the LCC is performed,which proves that the proposed loss conducting model is of practical value.

关 键 词：全寿命周期成本 损耗传导模型 电网损耗分布 差分自回归移动平均模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]