科技创新驱动“四化同步”发展研究  

A Study on the Development of “the Synchronization of Four Modernizations” Driven by Technological Innovation

作　　者：杜俊平[1] 

机构地区：[1]河套学院经济管理系,内蒙古巴彦淖尔015000

出　　处：《贵州商业高等专科学校学报》2015年第4期32-42,共11页Journal of Guizhou Commercial College

摘　　要：本文通过构建VAR模型对科技创新驱动新型城镇化、新型工业化、农业现代化与信息化协调发展问题进行研究,发现科技创新对"新四化"的协调发展驱动力不足、贡献并不十分显著,制约着"新四化"水平提升及协同发展。格兰杰因果分析表明:信息化是新型工业化的格兰杰原因,其他"新四化"相互之间的因果关系不存在,说明我国"新四化"发展中还存在互动不足、协调不力、融合不够的问题。协整检验发现,长期内,"新四化"与科技相互之间互相影响、互相促进,呈同步发展态势。最后提出了促进科技创新、"新四化"协调发展的对策建议。Through the construction of VAR model, this paper studies the harmonious development between new - type urbanization, new industrialization, agricultural modernization and informatization which are driven by technological in- novation. Via detailed analysis, it discovers that technological innovation didn＇ t provide enough driving force and contri- bution to the coordinated development of the ＂Four New Modernizations＂. On the contrary, it restricts the improvement of modernizations. Granger causality analysis shows that informatization is the Granger causality of new industrialization while there are no causal relationship between other ＂New Modernizations＂, which indicates that there is not enough in- teraction, coordination and fusion between them. Co -integration test suggests that the ＂Four New Modernizations＂ interacts and promotes mutually with science and technology, and presents a trend of synchronous development for a long term In the end, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions which can accelerate technological innovation and promote the harmonious development of ＂Four New Modernizations＂.

关 键 词：农业现代化 新型城镇化 新型工业化 信息化 科技创新 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]