基于中尺度集合预报的“8.16”抚顺地区特大暴雨过程分析  

Analysis of "8.16" extreme rainstorm process using mesoscale ensemble forecasting system in Fushun area

作　　者：陈宇 王小桃[2] 王瀛 金博[3] 沈玉敏[2] 何宝财 蒋大凯 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象灾害监测预警中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [3]沈阳市东陵区气象局,辽宁沈阳110100 [4]葫芦岛市气象局,辽宁葫芦岛125000

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2015年第6期1-8,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：辽宁省气象局课题"不同类别强对流天气的探空T-logP图分析技术"(201407);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2015-015)共同资助

摘　　要：利用WRF V3模式,基于增长膜繁殖法(BGM)扰动方案及物理过程扰动法建立一个多物理过程和多初值的中尺度集合预报系统,并对2013年8月16日辽宁省抚顺地区浑河上游的局地特大暴雨过程进行集合预报模拟试验分析。结果表明:建立的中尺度集合预报系统能较好地模拟此次抚顺地区超强降水过程,与单一的确定性预报相比,中尺度集合预报系统的预报效果较好。不同起报时间的集合预报效果未随预报时效的临近而降低,而是72 h和48 h前起报对暴雨至大暴雨量级的降水中心落区位置的预报效果更好。针对此次抚顺地区"8.16"降水过程,由WRF V3模式物理过程参数化方案组合扰动建立的集合预报效果的改进比由初值扰动形成的集合预报效果的改进大。建立的集合预报系统中各成员之间预报效果存在差异,因此选择对研究对象适应性更高的物理过程参数化方案作为集合预报成员有利于提高预报效果。A mesoscale ensemble forecasting system with multi-initial conditions and multi-physical processes by methods of a dual BGM disturbance and physical process disturbance was established based on a WRF V3. A heav- y rainfall in the upper reaches of Hunhe river of Fushun on August 16,2013 was analyzed with the above system. The results show that this ensemble system is highly sensitive to the initial conditions and physical processes, and could well simulate the precipitation process. Compared to a single deterministic prediction, the ensemble forecast could improve the valid forecasting period ahead of 24-48 hours to capture strong rainfall information. Moreover, ensemble prediction accuracy does not decrease with increase of the forecast time length, especially for the falling areas of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm forecasted with the inititial conditions at 72 hours and 48 hours early. The improvement of rainstorm prediction due to the use of ensemble, physical parameterizations are larger than those from the ensemble initial conditions, and this may be the reason why the simulation results of some members are better than those of the others. Thus, selection of appropriate physical parameterization schemes as ensemble mem- bers is very important.

关 键 词：特大暴雨 集合预报 BGM扰动 物理过程扰动 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]