2012年东北地区重大天气过程WRF模式预报效果检验  

Verification of forecasting effect by WRF model for important weather processes in northeast China in 2012

作　　者：公颖[1] 周小珊[1] 杨森[1] 董博[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]沈阳市气象局,辽宁沈阳110168

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2015年第6期27-33,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(2012IAE-CMA07);辽宁省海洋气象专家型预报员团队项目共同资助

摘　　要：利用东北区域实况24 h累积降水资料,应用与国家气象中心建设并使用的全国业务区域模式统一检验平台一致的检验方法,采用WRF V3.3.1模式对东北地区2012年4次大暴雨过程、两次暴雪过程的预报效果进行了客观检验及统计分析,并与JAPAN模式和T639模式进行对比分析,结合主观检验,对WRF模式在东北地区的预报性能进行评估。结果表明:2012年东北地区6次强降水过程WRF模式预报效果与JAPAN模式、T639模式基本相当,即有较稳定且较高水平的预报能力,加之其中尺度模式较高的时空分辨率,因此在天气预报领域有重要的使用和研究价值。2012年东北地区6次重大降水过程,WRF模式对降水的位置及时间演变趋势预报均较好,对主降水带的位置及强度预报效果总体一般,在对主降水带位置与强度预报效果较好的前提下,其对于暴雨中心的位置预报效果也较好。与T639模式和JAPAN模式相比,WRF中尺度模式的主降水带形态刻画更细致,对强降水中心的位置和范围预报较明确,且在主降水带位置与强度预报效果较好的前提下较可靠,WRF中尺度模式的这一优点,对目前精细化预报有重要意义;客观检验并不能完全说明模式的预报效果,WRF模式预报效果的检验和模式预报水平的说明,必须结合主观检验,且需从多角度进行全面考察;WRF模式对1215号台风路径及台风暴雨过程预报均与实况基本吻合(尤其是36 h和24 h预报),说明WRF中尺度模式对台风系统及其诱发的暴雨过程有较好的预报能力。Based on observational 24 hours accumulated precipitation data,the forecasting effects by the WRF V3. 3. 1 for 4 heavy rain processes and 2 heavy snow processes in 2012 were verified using a united verification platform built by the National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, and were compared with the results of T639 and JAPAN models. Combining the subjective evaluation, the forecasting capability of WRF V3.3.1 in the northeast China was valuated. The results show that forecasting effects by the WRF V3.3.1 for the 6 heavy precipitation processes are basically equivalent to those of T639 and JAPAN modles, that is to say that the WRF V3.3.1 modle has a steady and high level forecast ability. Also, it has the high spatial and temporal resolu- tion, so the WRF V3.3.1 model is important in weather forecasting field in future. For the 6 important processes in 2012,the WRF V3.3.1 model has a good forecasting effect on the position and the evolution trend of precipitati- on, while it has a relatively worse forecasting effect on the location and amplitude of main precipitation belt. If the location and amplitude of main precipitation belt are well predicted, the forecast for position of precipitation center is believable. Compared with T639 and JAPAN models, the forecasted shape of main rain belt by the meso-scale model WRF is more detailed;the forecasted location and amplitude of main precipitation belt is very clear; the forecasted position of precipitation center is more realistic if location and intensity of main precipitation belt could be well forecasted. This advantage of meso-scale model is meaningful for fine forecast nowadays. The objective verification can not fully explain the model＇s forecasting effect, so the evaluation for model＇s forecasting effect and the illustration for model＇s forecasting level must be combined with subjective verification. Forethemore,it should be investigated from multi-angle. The WRF V3.3.1 performs well in the prediction for path of typhoon No. 121

关 键 词：东北地区 检验 台风 暴雨 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]