淮河流域冬小麦涝渍灾害损失评估研究  

Study on assessment of waterlogging disaster losses of winter wheat in Huaihe river basin

作　　者：张浩[1] 马晓群[1] 彭妮 许莹[1] 张宏群[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省气象科学研究所安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,安徽合肥230031 [2]石林县气象局,云南石林652200

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2015年第6期123-129,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006027)资助

摘　　要：淮河流域是中国冬小麦的主产区,同时也是旱涝灾害的频发区。为了定量评估涝渍灾害对淮河流域冬小麦产量造成的损失,本文基于涝渍灾害强度、作物水分敏感性、区域涝渍脆弱性和抗灾能力建立了淮河流域冬小麦涝渍灾害损失评估数理统计模型。结果表明:建立的淮河流域冬小麦涝渍灾害损失评估模型通过P<0.001的显著性检验。根据实际减产率的概率密度分布和涝渍灾害损失等级的对应关系,将涝渍灾害损失程度分为无涝、轻涝、中涝和重涝4个等级,并确定了各等级标准。模型回代和验证结果表明,评估灾损等级与实际灾损等级基本正确的比例均超过90%;典型涝渍年评估等级与实际灾损等级的空间分布趋势基本一致,除个别年份外,二者的绝对误差低于8%,灾损等级完全符合的比例超过50%,基本正确的比例超过90%,可满足业务服务的精度要求。通过引入基于涝渍脆弱性和抗灾能力的综合指数作为评估模型的参数,显著提高了涝渍灾害损失模型评估的准确性。The Huaihe Basin is one of the major winter wheat producing areas in China, and it is a region that drought and flood disasters often occur as well. In order to assess quantitatively waterlogging disaster losses of the winter wheat in this region, a winter wheat waterlogging disaster losses model was developed based on intensity in- dex of waterlogging disaster, water sensitivity of crop, regional waterlogging vulnerability and anti-disaster ability. The results indicate that the significant test of model reaches to extreme significant level （P 〈 0. 001 ）. Based on the corresponding relationship between actual yield reduction rate and damage grade of waterlogging disaster, the waterlogging disaster losses are divided into four levels, i. e. no waterlogging, light waterlogging, moderate water- logging and heavy waterlogging. The grade standards for each level are determined accordingly. Model back substi- tution and verification results show that the proportion of basic correctness for assessment damage grade and the ac- tual damage grade is more than 90.0%. Spatial distributions of assessed and actual trends of disaster losses grades are consistent in typical waterlogging year, and both absoulute errors are lower than 8% except for individual years. The proportions of assessed disaster loss grades completely agreed with actual situation can reach 50% and that of partly agreed can reach 90%. Therefore, it can satisfy the needs of operational service. By introducing the comprehensive indexes based on waterlogging vulnerability and anti-disaster ability factors as parameters of assess- ment model, it improves the accuracy of the model significantly.

关 键 词：涝渍灾害损失 脆弱性 定量评估 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]