中国旅游政策评估模型构建与政策变量分析  

Analysis of the Construction of China's Tourism Policy Evaluation Model and Policy Variables

作　　者：王慧娴[1] 张辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062 [2]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《旅游科学》2015年第5期1-13,共13页Tourism Science

基　　金：国家旅游局课题"中国旅游政策框架体系研究"(KBI14001531);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"不同地域文化群体的目的地形象感知差异研究"(GK201504014)

摘　　要：旅游政策对中国旅游业的发展具有重要作用,旅游政策评价研究是旅游政策贯彻与废止的主要依据,对政策供需配置、提高政策效率意义重大。本文基于“投射-实施后”对比分析法,类比Cobb-Douglas生产函数构建国内旅游收入与资本、劳动、资源、技术和政策等因素关系的函数,利用Eviews7.2软件对1992~2013年的有关统计数据进行多元线性回归分析,建立中国旅游政策评估模型。研究发现：我国近20年来颁布的旅游政策是有效的;制度性政策的作用大于措施性政策;政策评估模型中的劳动等非政策因素对旅游业发展的带动作用规律不尽相同,应运用现代资本理念和信息技术推动旅游业发展。Tourism policy plays an important role in China＇ s tourism development. Studies of tourism policy evaluation, a main basis for the implementation and the abolition of tourism policies, are also of great significance to the supply and the efficiency improvement of the policies. Based on the simple projection-after-implementation comparative analysis, this paper draws a Cobb Douglas analogy of the production function to build functions between domestic tourism income and other factors such as capital, labor, resources, technologies as well as policy. Eviews 7.2 software is also employed to make a bivariate correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis with statistical data collected from 1992 to 2013 to establish China＇ s tourism policy evaluation model. The results show the tourism policies issued in the past two decades are valid; the effect of institutional policy is greater than that of the regulatory ones; and the role of labor and resources for tourism development is not clear. The authors suggest that more emphasis should be put on modem information technology and capital investment to promote tourism development in the future.

关 键 词：旅游政策 政策评价 政策变量 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]