我国华北煤田岩溶陷落柱预测研究  

Study on location prediction of paleo--karst sinkholes in Northern China Coalfields

作　　者：尹尚先[1] 徐斌[2] 刘德民[1] 徐慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北科技学院河北省矿井灾害防治重点实验室,北京101601 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)地球科学与测绘学院,北京100083

出　　处：《煤炭科学技术》2016年第1期172-177,共6页Coal Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51074075;41072188);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAK04B04);河北省自然科学基金联合资助项目(E2012508001)

摘　　要：为了预测岩溶陷落柱的发育可能性、发育靶区或空间位置,依据岩溶陷落柱形成主控因素,建立了包含2个一级指标和10个二级指标的综合预测指标体系,并根据各指标的重要性,运用模糊层次分析法对其赋以权重;运用所建立的预测体系分别对华北煤田3个典型煤矿进行了预测评价。结果表明:Ⅰ煤矿发育程度综合评价评分为84.9,可判断陷落柱发育可能性大;Ⅱ煤矿基于GIS平台进行了陷落柱位置预测,预测Ⅱ煤矿有3个发育区、2个较发育区,经工程勘察揭露,有1个陷落柱位于预测区;Ⅲ煤矿基于预测的岩溶强径流带进行了陷落柱位置预测,预测Ⅱ煤矿有8个较发育靶区,其中有1个靶区内已揭露有陷落柱。所建立的预测方法体系能够实现陷落柱位置的定量或半定量预测,预测结果与实际情况比较吻合。In order to predict accurately the development possibility,the target area or the location of paleo--karst sinkholes,the factor prediction system,including two indexes at the first class,geological structure and karst development,and 10 indexes at the second,was established on the basis of main control factors for formation of sinkholes. According to the importance of indexes,each index was given different weights by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the established prediction system,three typical mine areas in Northern China had been predicted and evaluated respectively. The development probability of paleo--karst sinkholes in MineⅠwas predicted,and the comprehensive evaluation score was 84. 9 which meant the paleo--karst sinkholes was likely to be found. Locations of paleo--karst sinkholes in Mine Ⅱ were predicted on the basis of GIS platform,and the results showed that there were three most developed location,two relatively developed location. What is more,one paleo--karst sinkhole was discovered in the most developed location by the late project. Locations of paleo--karst sinkholes in Mine Ⅲ were predicted on the basis of the predicted intensive runoff zones,and the results showed that there were 8 most developed target area and one paleo--karst sinkhole was discovered in the most developed area. The evaluation results indicate that the established prediction system can be used to predict locations of paleo--karst sinkholes,and the results accord with facts.

关 键 词：陷落柱 位置预测 模糊层次分析法 评价指标体系 

分 类 号：TD167[矿业工程—矿山地质测量] P642.25[天文地球—工程地质学]