从人口转变到人口均衡  

From Demographic Transition to Population Balance

作　　者：郭震威 王颖[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家卫生计生委科研所 [2]北京师范大学政府管理学院

出　　处：《人口研究》2016年第1期57-68,共12页Population Research

摘　　要：我国快速实现人口转变,使老龄化社会于世纪之交提前到来。在一定的资源环境和技术、制度条件下,统筹解决好人口总量较大与结构矛盾突出的"两难"问题,成为现阶段人口均衡发展的基本命题。如果及时实施全面两孩政策,并择机进一步调整人口及相关经济社会政策,将妇女生育水平提高到1.8左右并逐步回归到更替水平上下,那么,未来三、四十年,我国人口将趋向于一个稳定人口,年龄构成和城乡构成将大体稳定下来,60岁及以上老年人口比例约为1/3,老龄化程度达到发达国家的整体水平,但仍低于德国、日本等国家的水平,城镇化率达到75%左右;届时,人力资本积累居世界前列,基本实现国家现代化,人口自身各要素之间及其与经济社会资源环境之间可望保持总体协调。China experienced an early arrival of aged society around the turn of the century due to its rapid demographic transition. In order to keep the equilibrium development of population, it is es- sential to address the dilemma of the large population size and the unbalanced population structure under certain resource, technology and institution conditions. If the government implements the universal two-child policy in time, and further adjusts the population and related socio-economic policies to in- crease TFR to about 1. 8 and then gradually make it return to the replacement level, a stable population will be approximately achieved in the next 30 or 40 years. The age structure, together with the urban and rural composition will both reach a stable level. The proportion of population aged 60 or over will reach one-third, which is almost the average level of developed countries as a whole but still lower than that of Germany and Japan, and the urbanization rate will reach ？5 percent. At that time, the human capital accumulation will rank forefront among the world, the modernization will be realized, and the balance among the factors of population itself and the development of economy, sociely, resources and environment is expected to be maintained.

关 键 词：人口均衡发展 人口转变 生育政策 微观仿真 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]