T639模式对哈尔滨2014年8月5日冰雹预报能力检验  

Forecasting capability test of model T639 on hail in Harbin on August 5,2014

作　　者：牛忠清[1] 王恒宇[1] 张苗苗[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省人工影响天气办公室,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《黑龙江气象》2015年第4期5-7,21,共4页Heilongjiang Meteorology

摘　　要：本文利用T639数值预报产品对2014年哈尔滨一次降雹过程从高空形势及有关物理量预报场进行分析,结果表明:通过对2014年8月5日08时-8月7日08时500 h Pa预报场与实况进行分析对比,发现T639 500 h Pa高度场、温度场的预报可对此次冰雹天气的主要影响系统有一定的预报能力。通过对物理量预报场分析,发现假相当位温、垂直速度、散度、涡度、K指数、相对湿度等物理量对这次冰雹预报都有较好的预报效果,可见T639各种物理量预报场对冰雹天气预报有一定的指示意义,为此次天气过程提供了有力的预报依据。今后在做防雹指导预报时,可以充分利用T639数值预报产品,提高冰雹天气的预报能力。The upper situation and physical quantity of a hail process happened in Harbin in 2014 was analyzed rith T639 model. The results showed that： comparative analysis of the forecasted 500 hPa situation and actuality eld, it found that the forecasted 500 hPa situation and the temperatures of T639 has stated forecast ability of inuence system for the hail process. Through the analysis of the physical quantity forecast field, it was found that otential pseudo-equivalent temperature, vertical velocity, divergence, vorticity, K index, relative humidity and ther physical quantities have good forecast effect on the hail prediction. The forecasted of physical variable field f T639 provide with good indicative significance for the forecast of hail. We can make full use of the T639 nu- aerical forecast products in future hail forecast guidance to improve the forecast ability.

关 键 词：T639模式 冰雹 物理量场分析 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]