基于灰色模型的不常用备件需求预测方法  

Demand Prediction Method for Rarely-used Spare Parts with Grey Model

作　　者：赵劲松[1,2] 贺宇[1] 门君[1] 令狐昌应[1] 

机构地区：[1]军事交通学院装备保障系,天津300161 [2]军械工程学院装备指挥与管理系,石家庄050003

出　　处：《军事交通学院学报》2016年第1期35-38,共4页Journal of Military Transportation University

摘　　要：为解决不常用备件预测不准造成备件积压或资金浪费问题,采用灰色理论对不常用备件需求预测进行研究。建立了不常用备件需求预测灰色模型,通过实例分析和对模型的后验差检验,证明该方法能够对不常用备件进行有效预测。To solve the problem of overstocking spare parts or wasting fund because of inaccurate prediction for rarely-used spare parts, the paper studies the demand prediction for rarely-used spare parts with grey model. A demand prediction grey model for rarely-used spare parts is established, and it is proved to be effective for predicting rarely-used spare parts through case studying and after-test residue checking.

关 键 词：不常用备件 灰色模型 需求预测 后验差检验 

分 类 号：E246[军事—军事理论]