油气管道可接受风险准则研究  

Risk acceptance criteria for oil and gas pipelines

作　　者：赵新伟 张华[1] 罗金恒 

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团石油管工程技术研究院CNPC石油管工程重点实验室

出　　处：《油气储运》2016年第1期1-6,共6页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题"天然气管道风险定量评估技术研究";2008BAB30B03

摘　　要：风险评估是管道完整性管理的基础和核心技术,而风险可接受判据是风险评估中必须解决的关键技术问题。按照风险的最低合理可行(ALARP)原则,结合中国油气管道实际,基于历史事故数据统计分析,提出了中国油气管道风险可接受准则。推荐个体风险可接受的临界值为10-6,可容忍的临界值为10-4;给出了社会风险可接受判据的F-N曲线模型,即死亡人数(N)和超越概率(F)关系曲线。建议加强油气管道失效信息数据库建设,做好历史失效事故数据的积累和统计,对管道风险评估具有重要意义。Risk assessment is the basis and core technology for pipeline integrity management, and the risk acceptance criteria is the critical technical issue in risk assessment. According to the principle of ＂As Low As Reasonably Practicable （ALARP）＂, the risk acceptance criteria for oil and gas pipelines in China were proposed through statistic analysis on the historical accident data. The acceptable critical value and tolerable critical value of individual risk were recommended to be 10-6 and 10-4 respectively. The FN curve model for social risk acceptance criteria （i.e., the relation function between the death number N and the exceeding probability F） was provided. It is suggested to strengthen the establishment of pipeline failure database, since the collection and statistical analysis of historical failure accidents data are significant for pipeline risk assessment. （4 Figures, 4 Tables, 10 References）

关 键 词：油气管道 风险评估 风险可接受判据 个体风险 社会风险 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]