资料同化在渤黄海风暴潮重现期计算中的应用研究  

Study on the application of the data assimilation in the return period of storm surge in Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea

作　　者：李涛[1,2] 吴少华[1] 侯京明[1] 傅赐福[1] 付翔[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081 [2]国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋通报》2015年第6期631-641,共11页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家海洋局青年海洋科学基金(2012232);国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAC19B08;2013BAB04B02)

摘　　要：基于渤黄海沿岸14个潮位站的历史潮位资料,同时刻同化利用WRF大气模式驱动风暴潮数值模型模拟得到沿岸2′格点的逐时风暴增水。通过烟台潮位站的同化试验以及与观测资料完整的塘沽和羊角沟潮位站进行重现期比较分析,表明最优插值法可以提高数值模拟法计算得到的重现期风暴潮位的准确度,至少是在潮位站附近同化后的重现期值是合理可信的,证实资料同化在渤黄海风暴潮重现期分析中具有良好的性能,可在大范围、高分辨率进行沿岸风暴潮重现期分析中予以采用。据此给出了渤黄海沿岸五十年一遇和百年一遇风暴潮的分析结果,以期为渤黄海沿岸今后的布局规划和堤防建设工作提供决策支持。Based on the storm surge historical data of 14 tide gauge stations along Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, the 2 ′ grid,hourly simulated results from the storm surge model driven by the atmospheric model WRF are synchronously assimilated,.Through the data assimilation experiments of Yantai tide gauge station and the comparative analysis of the return periods with Tanggu and Yangjiaogou tide gauge staions which have complete dataset, the results show that the Optimal Interpolation can improve the accuracy of the return period of simulated storm surge by the model, and at least the assimilation results near the tide stations are reasonable and credible, confirming the data assimilation has good performance in analyzing the return period of storm surges in Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, and can be employed to gain the return period of storm surge in the large range and high resolution coasts. In view of the above, 50-year and 100-year return periods of storm surges along the coast of Bohai and Yellow Sea are provided, expecting these results can provide decision support for the future layout planning and levee construction along the coast of Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea.

关 键 词：风暴潮 重现期 数值模拟 资料同化 渤黄海 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]