运河工程坝坡失稳模糊风险评估研究  

Fuzzy Risk Assessment of Dam Slope Instability in Canal Engineering

作　　者：刘乃盛 李慧慧 廉斌[3] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学土木工程学院,上海200092 [2]安徽省港航建设投资集团有限公司,安徽合肥230051 [3]安徽省路港工程有限责任公司,安徽合肥230051

出　　处：《人民黄河》2016年第2期95-98,102,共5页Yellow River

摘　　要：在航道与堤坝施工过程中,堤坝边坡失稳风险需要引起重视。运河堤坝边坡具有沿线较长、受河水作用与人类活动影响较大等特点,结合运河工程实例,建立适用于坝坡失稳模糊风险评估的模型,提出风险因子的量化指标及风险等级划分体系,确定模糊风险的等级,建立了一套完整的坝坡失稳模糊风险评估方法。该方法首先结合层次分析法建立坝坡失稳风险因子的层次结构,计算各指标对于失稳风险的权重,然后建立风险因子的量化指标体系,包括定性指标的风险等级划分以及定量指标的隶属函数构造,在此基础上对影响坝坡失稳的风险因素进行单因素评价,并结合权重进行模糊综合评价以及得出综合评判结论。最后结合运河工程实际,提出确保施工质量、保证施工安全、加强安全监测以及进行设计验算等坝坡失稳除险避险措施建议。During the construction of canal and dikes, instability risk of dam slope deserves our attention. Dam slope of canal extends long and is under great influence of river and human activity. Through an engineering case, the fuzzy assessment model of dam slope instability risk was built. The quantitative index and grading method of risk factors were put forward, so as to determine the fuzzy risk level. First, the hierarchical structure of risk factors was built and the weight proportion was calculated through Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then the index quantification method of qualitative factor and the membership function of quantitative factor were presented. On this base single evaluation of each risk factor was carried out, so the comprehensive evaluation was feasible with weight matrix and conclusion was obtained. Combining with the canal engineering fact, measures to avoid and eliminate risks were put forward, which included construction quality, construction safety, safety monitoring and design checking computation.

关 键 词：坝坡失稳 模糊数学 风险评估 

分 类 号：TV861[水利工程—水利水电工程]