我国投资的扩散化趋势与区域转移:基于马尔可夫链理论的分析  

The Diffusion Tendency and Regional Transfer of Investment in China:An Analysis based on the Theory of Markov Chain

作　　者：徐林清[1] 陈亚枚 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2016年第1期104-109,共6页Review of Economy and Management

摘　　要：投资过度集中会带来一定程度的市场拥挤效应从而导致逆集群趋势的出现,主要表现在固定资产投资向外围地区扩散。中国固定资产投资分布的基尼系数显示,整体呈不断下降的趋势,投资的区域分布正在向更加均衡的方向演进。基于马尔可夫模型的分析发现,长期来看,处于中等发展水平的地区将会获得更多的投资,更多地区的固定资产投资水平将跃居第一梯队,逆集群化趋势将会愈益明显。故对着眼于长远投资的企业来说,应将企业布局在经济集聚区的外围地区,以避免外部规模不经济愈益严重的情况。另外,政府可以通过适当的宏观政策引导企业向外围地区投资,同时为企业创造良好的投资环境。The over - crowdedness of investments will result in the market congestion effect, and in turn may lead to the emergence of anti -clustering tendency, characterized by fixed assets investments＇scattering to the peripherals. The Gini Coefficient of the distribution of fixed assets investments in China shows that the total investment has been declining, but the regional distribution of investment is moving toward a more balanced direction. Analysis based on the Markov Model states that the medium developed areas are likely to draw more investments, and the investments of fixed assets in more areas will be elevated to the first tier. The anti - clustering tendency will become remarkable. So enterprises focused on long - term investments should choose the regions surrounding the economic agglomeration area so as to avoid external diseconomy of investment scale. In addition, governments can encourage enterprises to invest more in the outlying areas by making appropriate macroeconomic policies and creating a good investment environment for enterprises.

关 键 词：固定资产投资 投资基尼系数 马尔可夫链 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]