社会稳定风险仿真模拟与社会冲突的前馈控制——基于政策模拟方法的社会稳定风险系列研究之一  

The Analogue Simulation of Social Stability Risk and Feedforward Control of Social Conflict

作　　者：阎耀军[1] 郭涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学公共危机管理研究所,天津300389

出　　处：《北京行政学院学报》2016年第1期9-16,共8页Journal of Beijing administration institute

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(13ASH133)

摘　　要：政策一旦投入社会现实之中,就会形成一种能量,迫使原有的社会利益结构发生某种改变且覆水难收。所以为规避社会冲突,政策制定者总是事先进行社会稳定风险评估,力求预知特定政策投入运行后所产生能量的正负及其大小,以规避或防范社会冲突。由于社会风险模拟方法以特定的政策及其施加目标为研究对象,可以在人工环境中建立一个与它相似的仿真模型,并通过人工和计算机手段,使其在虚拟环境中运行和多向度推演,观察其未来发展变化的过程及最终结果,预先发现其中的问题并进行对策矫正,因此这种方法被业内认为以动态推演的优势超越于传统的静态评估,对社会冲突风险的防范具有极大的应用价值。通过对社会稳定风险仿真模拟的主要内容及其焦点和难点进行探讨,同时针对社会稳定风险系统整体性涌现的产物——社会冲突,提出利用社会风险仿真模拟方法实施前馈控制的初步构想。The policy will form a kind of energy when it is implemented,forcing the original interests structure be changed and never be retrieved.Therefore,policy-makers always make a social stability risk assessment in advance and attempt to predict the quality and quantity of the policy so as to avoid or prevent social conflicts.The simulative method of social stability risk takes a specific policy and its objectives as research subjects.We can create a similar simulative model in the artificial environment and operate it in a virtual environment in an all-round way by an artificial means and computer in order to observe its development and the final outcome,to discover the problems early and to propose some countermeasures.In the insider＇s opinion,this method featuring dynamic simulation is better than the old method featuring static evaluation and is of applied significance for social conflict prevention.This paper discusses the main content of analogue simulation of social stability risk and its focus and difficulties.At the same time,it also presents preliminary ideas of the feedforward control by which the simulative method of social risk can be used.

关 键 词：社会稳定风险 社会冲突 仿真模拟 前馈控制 

分 类 号：D631.43[政治法律—政治学]