基于模糊概率的供水系统风险管理研究——以湖漫水库为例  

On Risk Management of Water System Based on Fuzzy Probability

作　　者：张宁[1] 时宁宁[1] 卢靖[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《杭州电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第6期1-6,29,共7页Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71203053);教育部人文社科项目(10YJC790382);浙江省社科规划"之江青年"人才项目(11ZJQN002YB)

摘　　要：研究以浙江湖漫水库供水系统为例,通过模糊概率理论构建了供水系统的风险模糊函数组,估算该地区供水系统的相关风险模糊概率,并建立了供水系统风险评价指标体系,对供水系统的运行进行了风险管理分析与评价。结果表明,从不同的风险角度都可以反映出湖漫水库干旱的危害程度,且当前水库管理仍存在的其它风险隐患,为今后该地区的水资源规划及供水系统风险管理的实施奠定了基础。It takes the water system of Hu Man reservoir in Zhejiang Province as an example to estimate the related risk fuzzy probability by establishing the risk fuzzy function set of the water system based on the fuzzy probability theory and analyze and evaluate the risk of existing operation management of the water system with the risk evaluation index system established. The result shows that the damage degree of the drought of Hu Man reservoir can be reflected from different risk angles, and there exist some other hidden dangers in its man- agement. The research lays a foundation for carrying out the water resources planning and the water system risk management of the area.

关 键 词：模糊概率 风险管理 干旱期 供水系统 

分 类 号：F303.1[经济管理—产业经济]