我国各大城市旱水灾分析与预测  

Analysis and Forecast of Drought and Flood in Major Cities of China

作　　者：李冬辰[1] 张馨元[2] 木仁[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)人文经管学院,北京100083 [2]武汉大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [3]内蒙古工业大学管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《内蒙古财经大学学报》2016年第1期47-51,共5页Journal of Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：随着生态环境的恶化,众多自然灾害频发,典型的自然灾害包括旱灾、水灾等,这些自然灾害都与降水量存在较强关系。本文通过对历年降水量相关数据的分析得出各大城市不同月份降水量之间的特殊关系,并利用计算机模拟方法对未来降水量数据进行了相关预测,得出了不同地区发生旱水灾的可能性,并给出了不同等级旱水灾的灾害损失率。With the deterioration of the ecological environment, natural disasters happen frequently, such as the typical natural disasters of drought, floods, etc.. These natural disasters have a strong relationship with precipitation. Based on the analysis of the relevant data of the annual precipitation, this paper finds out the special relationship in precipitation between the different months of the major cities, forecasts the future rainfall data with computer simula- tion method and puts forward the disaster damage rate caused by drought and flood disaster of different levels.

关 键 词：降水量 自然灾害 旱水灾 泊松分布 计算机模拟 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济]