乳品进口冲击与中国乳业安全的策略选择——兼论国内农业安全网的贸易条件  

Study on the Impacts of Dairy Import and the Strategy Choice for Dairy Safety:Trade Condition of China Agricultural Safety Net

作　　者：胡冰川[1] 董晓霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所国家奶牛产业技术体系产业经济研究室,北京100005 [2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所北京市奶牛产业技术体系产业健康养殖与环境研究室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2016年第1期84-94,112,共11页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:71373284);国家自然科学基金青年项目(编号:71203221)资助

摘　　要：本文从奶农"倒奶"的社会现象入手,以国内乳品市场及乳业安全为出发点,重点研究了乳品进口对国内乳品市场的冲击影响,并基于量化分析结果提出了相应的政策建议。从逻辑上看,本文首先将影响乳品进口的贸易因素与其他的市场因素进行了剥离,并对冲击影响的贸易前提条件进行了讨论,提出了启动中国乳品进口特殊保障机制或贸易救济措施的充分必要条件,此条件的重要目的在于避免滥用相关政策措施。进一步利用一般均衡模型具体分析了乳品进口对中国奶牛养殖与乳品加工两个行业的具体影响,比较模型结果与现实情况,量化了比较静态条件下乳品进口对中国奶牛养殖的冲击。最后,提出了以构建奶业安全网为契机、循序渐进地构建中国农业安全网的设想。Starting from the social phenomenon of farmers 'dumping of milk',this paper focusing on the domestic dairy market and dairy safety,the impacts of dairy imports were researched,and the corresponding solutions were proposed based on the quantitative analysis results. For the impacts of dairy imports,the trade preconditions of the impacts were discussed since the trade factors were stripped from the other market factors. The necessary and sufficient condition for the special safeguard mechanism or trade remedy measures of China's dairy imports was proposed to avoid the abuse of relevant policy measures in reality. Furthermore,the general equilibrium model was applied to analyze the specific impact of dairy imports on China's dairy farming and dairy processing industry. Compared with the actual situation,the model results showed the impact of dairy imports on China's dairy farming under comparative static condition. As a result,the conception of building China's agricultural safety net gradually with the establishment of dairy safety net as a turning point was given.

关 键 词：乳业安全 乳品进口 特殊保障机制 一般均衡 农业安全网 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济]