Risk management for sulfur dioxide abatement under multiple uncertainties  

作　　者：C. DAI W. SUN Q. TAN Y. LIU W.T. LU H.C. GUO 

机构地区：[1]College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China [2]Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Reginal Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 7H9, Canada [3]College of Water Resources & Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China

出　　处：《Frontiers of Earth Science》2016年第1期87-107,共21页地球科学前沿（英文版）

摘　　要：In this study, interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic progranaming （TSP）, and conditional value-at-risk （CVaR） were incorporated into a general optimization framework, leading to an interval-parameter CVaR-based two-stage programming （ICTP） method. The ICTP method had several advantages： （i） its objective function simultaneously took expected cost and risk cost into consideration, and also used discrete random variables and discrete intervals to reflect uncertain properties; （ii） it quantitatively evaluated the right tail of distributions of random variables which could better calculate the risk of violated environmental standards; （iii） it was useful for helping decision makers to analyze the trade-offs between cost and risk; and （iv） it was effective to penalize the second-stage costs, as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The developed model was applied to sulfur dioxide abatement in an air quality management system. The results indicated that the ICTP method could be used for generating a series of air quality management schemes under different risk-aversion levels, for identifying desired air quality management strategies for decision makers, and for considering a proper balance between system economy and environmental quality.In this study, interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic progranaming （TSP）, and conditional value-at-risk （CVaR） were incorporated into a general optimization framework, leading to an interval-parameter CVaR-based two-stage programming （ICTP） method. The ICTP method had several advantages： （i） its objective function simultaneously took expected cost and risk cost into consideration, and also used discrete random variables and discrete intervals to reflect uncertain properties; （ii） it quantitatively evaluated the right tail of distributions of random variables which could better calculate the risk of violated environmental standards; （iii） it was useful for helping decision makers to analyze the trade-offs between cost and risk; and （iv） it was effective to penalize the second-stage costs, as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The developed model was applied to sulfur dioxide abatement in an air quality management system. The results indicated that the ICTP method could be used for generating a series of air quality management schemes under different risk-aversion levels, for identifying desired air quality management strategies for decision makers, and for considering a proper balance between system economy and environmental quality.

关 键 词：risk management conditional value-at-risk interval optimization two-stage programming uncertainty air quality management 

分 类 号：X701.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X511