含可信度的地层压力求取方法研究  

Study on Method of Determining the Formation Pressure with Credibility

作　　者：胜亚楠 管志川[1] 赵廷峰[2] 叶浪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)石油工程学院,青岛266580 [2]中国石油新疆油田分公司,克拉玛依834000

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2016年第2期37-42,共6页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金："十二五"国家科技重大专项课题(2011ZX05021-001);教育部"海洋油气井钻完井理论与工程"创新团队项目资助

摘　　要：地层压力是钻井工程设计的基础数据,较为准确地描述地层压力对于井身结构设计具有重要的意义。但是由于地层本身的复杂性以及预测地层压力方法的精度等问题,地层压力的解释结果存在一定的不确定性。现有的压力预测方法给出的是单一曲线和数值,不能描述地层压力的不确定性。首先根据测井资料建立定量求取地层压力的方法;然后,基于地层层序学、概率统计等相关理论和方法,将同组地层内某深度区间作为一个样本区间,将该深度区间内的地层压力数据作为测量样本,基于Monte Carlo模拟方法以及概率分布的相关理论,建立含可信度的地层压力的求取方法,使得地层压力的解释结果不在是一个单值,而是一个概率区间。实例分析表明,本文建立的描述地层压力的方法更切合工程实际。The formation pressure is the basic data of the drilling engineering design. Due to the complexity of petroleum geology,the incompleteness data,the accuracy of the mathematical model and other issues,the true value of formation pressure cannot be got. Error is the objective existence. Its true value will be distributed within a particular region.Firstly,a quantitative method to calculate the formation pressure based on the logging data was presented. Then based on the theory of stratigraphic science and probability and statistics,the uncertainty analysis and quantitative description of the geological parameters are established by putting the same group of stratigraphic certain formations as a sample interval. Then based on the Monte Carlo theory,the probability distribution function of the formation pressure was determined. It will make the quantitative description of the formation pressure more relevant with the practical engineering.

关 键 词：地层压力 不确定性 层序地层学 概率统计 MONTE CARLO模拟 

分 类 号：TE271[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]