1981—2013年内蒙古牧区雪灾风险性评估  

Risk Assessment of Snow Disaster in Pasturing Area of Inner Mongolia

作　　者：李丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古生态与农业气象中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2015年第6期19-23,共5页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

基　　金：内蒙古气象局青年科技项目"雪灾对内蒙古牧区草地畜牧业的影响"(nmqnqx201513);公益性行业(气象)科研专项"气象灾害风险保险指标体系应用"(201106018);中国适应气候变化项目(ACCC);中英瑞气候变化适应项目"内蒙古适应气候变化战略评估:内蒙古气候变化影响及适应对策研究"(ACCC/20100620-01)

摘　　要：文章利用内蒙古地区119个气象观测站1981—2013年冬季(11月至次年3月)的降雪、气温和风的资料、近14a的雪灾灾情资料及牧草资料,运用GIS软件和层次分析法并采用联合国人道主义事务部的风险度模型,对内蒙古牧区49个旗县的雪灾风险指数进行评估,并做出内蒙古牧区雪灾风险区划。结果表明,雪灾风险等级高的区域主要集中在新巴尔虎左旗、新巴尔虎右旗、陈巴尔虎旗、阿巴嘎旗、东乌珠穆沁旗、苏尼特左旗;满洲里市、鄂温克旗、苏尼特右旗、镶黄旗、锡林浩特、正蓝旗、乌拉特后旗雪灾风险次之;牧区雪灾中等风险、较低风险和低风险区主要分布在内蒙古的中西部和东南部。Using the data of snowfall, temperature and wind of winter from 1981 to 2013 of 119 weather stations in Inner Mongolia,and snow disaster situation and pasture data from 2000-2013 years, this article applied the GIS software, analytic hierarchy process and the risk grade model of humanitarianism purser department of the United Nations to assess the snow disaster risk index in 49 banners and counties of Inner Mongolia pasturing areas, then the snow disaster risk zoning was worked out. The results showed that New Barag Left Banner, New Barag Right Banner, Old Barag Banner, A Baga Banner, East Ujimqin Banner and Sonid Left Banner had the highest risk grade of snow disaster. Manzhouli city, Ewenki Banner, Sonid Right Banner, Xianghuang Banner, Xilinhot,Zhenglan Banner and Urad Rear Banner came to the second. The midwest and southeast areas of Inner Mongolia had the medium, the lower and lowest risk grade of snow disaster.

关 键 词：牧区雪灾 危险性 易损性 风险区划 

分 类 号：P468.025[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]