基于SVAR模型的河北省产业结构与就业结构对接分析研究  

Study of industrial structure docking labor structure in Hebei Province base on SVAR model

作　　者：孔海东[1] 刘兵[1] 李大赛[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401

出　　处：《河北工业大学学报》2015年第6期96-103,共8页Journal of Hebei University of Technology

基　　金：河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(SQ141039);河北省科学技术研究与发展计划(11457201D-64)

摘　　要：为了研究解决区域产业结构和就业结构之间的对接与协调发展问题,采用格兰杰因果研究及基于SVAR模型的脉冲响应函数分析方法,对河北省1985年至2013年产业结构与就业结构之间的协调性和动态响应关系进行了分析.结果表明:河北省第1、第2、第3产业的产业结构与就业之间整体上具有良好的协调性和对接关系;其中,第3产业的GDP结构与劳动力结构受到冲击后的波动响应短期为负,长期为正,说明短期内,其产业结构与就业结构的协调性不一致,体现了其产业内部不同类型组织对结构演变的影响效应是不同的.In order to study and solve the problem of industrial structure docking labor structure, we analyzed the dynamic response between Industrial structure and labor structure from 1985 to 2013 in Hebei Province by using the method of Grainger causality test andimpulse response function based on SVAR model. The results showed that, as the primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry in Hebei Province, there was a strong docking between Industrial structure and labor structure. However, as tertiary industry, there was a little weak docking between Industrial structure and labor structure since a short-term negative response has appeared at the beginning, although positive response appeared a few years later, that reflected different types of organizations have played different roles in structure evolution.

关 键 词：产业结构 就业结构 SVAR 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]