海运服务贸易开放度对竞争力的门槛效应研究——基于26国2001—2013年的面板数据分析  

Empirical Research on the Threshold Effects of the Openness of Maritime Transport Service Trade on Its Competitiveness—Based on Panel Data Analysis of 26 Maritime Countries from 2001 to 2013

作　　者：李晨[1] 迟萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《改革与战略》2015年第12期45-49,59,共6页Reformation & Strategy

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项"我国海运服务贸易逆差问题研究"(项目编号:201213026);青岛市民生科技计划软科学研究项目"青岛市国际航运服务业创新发展研究"(项目编号:13-1-3-139-13-(3)-zhc);山东省软科学研究项目"山东现代航运服务业创新路径及保障机制研究"(项目编号:2014RKE29033)

摘　　要：文章基于门槛回归模型,利用2001—2013年26个主要海运国家的面板数据,考察海运服务贸易开放度对其竞争力的门槛效应。研究发现,在分别以产业内贸易水平和海运运力为门槛变量模型中,海运服务贸易开放度对其竞争力的影响存在显著的三门槛效应,其中尤为值得注意的是,当海运运力从中上门槛区间过渡到高门槛区间时,海运服务贸易开放度对其竞争力的促进作用显著减弱。此外,分析结果还揭示出中国海运服务贸易产业内贸易水平相对较低而海运运力的总量规模已处于很高水平的现状。因此,中国应基于国内海运服务业发展现状,在适度开放原则的指导下,加快现代航运服务业的发展,同时积极优化海运运力结构,从而推动海运服务贸易的转型升级和整体竞争力的提升。Based on threshold model, the paper uses panel data of 26 countries from 2001 to 2013 to investigate how the openness of maritime transport service trade affects its competitiveness. The study shows that the impacts of openness of maritime transport service trade on its competitiveness have a significant triple threshold effect on intra-industry trade level and shipping capacity. It is worth noting that acceleration effect for the openness of maritime transport service trade on its competitiveness decreases obviously when shipping capacity transits from upper threshold interval to high interval. Moreover, the results reveal the status that the intra-industry trade level of Chinese maritime transport service trade is relative low but the scale of shipping capacity is quite high. Therefore, taking full account of the development of domestic maritime service and under the guidance of moderate market opening principle, China should speed up the development of modern shipping services and optimize the structure of shipping capacity, thus promoting the transformation and upgrading of maritime transport service trade and improving its overall competitiveness.

关 键 词：海运服务贸易开放度 海运服务贸易竞争力 门槛效应 面板数据 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]