2015年国内生猪市场分析及2016年展望  

Domestic Pig Market in 2015 and Its Prospect for 2016

作　　者：陈艳丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《农业展望》2015年第11期12-16,共5页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：2015年,过剩的产能被完全淘汰,生猪市场进入新一轮周期性上涨期。由于仔猪冬季成活率低、夏季存活率高,2015年3—8月生猪出栏量少、猪价上涨,9月后生猪出栏量大、猪价下跌。而生猪出栏量难以短时期内大幅增加,意味着需求旺季即将到来。未来生猪价格下跌幅度有限,供应减少导致的猪价上涨将持续一年甚至一年半以上。In 2015, with excess capacity to be completely eliminated, hog market has entered a new round of cyclical rise. Because of the low survival rate of piglets in winter and the high survival rate in summer, from March to August in 2015, the number of pig slaughter was less and the pork price was upward, and opposite situation happened after September. But the number of pig slaughter is difficult to significantly increase in the short term, which means that the demand peak season is approaching. In the future, hog price will be limited decrease, and have a rising caused by supply reduction in the process for one year or even one year and a half.

关 键 词：生猪市场 猪粮比价 生猪存栏 猪肉价格 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]