山火灾害对电网故障率的时空影响  

Space-time Impact of Forest Fire on Power Grid Fault Probability

作　　者：吴勇军[1,2] 薛禹胜[2] 陆佳政[3] 谢云云[1,2] 徐泰山[2] 李文云[4] 吴琛[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学自动化学院,江苏省南京市210094 [2]南瑞集团公司(国网电力科学研究院),江苏省南京市211106 [3]国网湖南省电力公司防灾减灾中心,湖南省长沙市410000 [4]云南电力调度控制中心,云南省昆明市650011

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2016年第3期14-20,共7页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228204);国家自然科学基金重点项目(61533010);中泰合作基金资助项目(5151101161);云南电网公司科技项目(YDTZ-F2014-105)~~

摘　　要：根据山火造成电力设备故障的途径和机理,建立输电线在山火灾害下的故障率修正模型,提出按电网故障率的时空分布预警防御算法。将山火信息与地理环境及气象信息相结合,预测山火的蔓延行为;动态评估线路闪络概率,预报输电线故障率的时空分布。使风险越大的潜在故障得到越高的关注度,提高电网停电防御系统对山火灾害的预警能力。According to the ways and mechanisms of electrical equipment faults caused by forest fire,a modified model of transmission line fault probability is developed.And an early-warning defense method based on the spatial-temporal distribution of power grid fault probability is proposed.Firstly,by combining forest fire information,geographic environments and meteorological information,the method is able to predict the forest fire behaviors and dynamically assess the transmission line flashover probability.Then,the spatial-temporal distribution fault probability can be obtained so that the higher the risk of potential faults is,the greater concern they will receive,thus raising the early-warning ability of power grids to prevent the forest fire.

关 键 词：输电线 山火 故障率 停电风险 在线评估 预警防御 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]