信息化海上编队作战决心方案风险评估  

Operation resolution scheme risk assessment for informationized warship formation at sea

作　　者：王玮[1] 余家祥[1] 杨绍清[1] 王磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军大连舰艇学院舰炮系,辽宁大连116013

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2016年第3期569-574,共6页Systems Engineering and Electronics

摘　　要：针对基于信息系统体系作战的海上作战风险管理问题,综合运用现代海战理论和风险管理理论,对信息化海上编队作战风险管理的风险辨识、风险评估和风险控制进行了研究。首先,围绕定下海上作战决心和实现海上作战决心所展开的海上作战指挥活动,分析了信息化海上编队作战面临的主要风险因素,建立了海上编队作战决心方案风险评估的指标体系;在此基础上,综合运用模糊评价理论,提出了一种基于模糊综合评价法的作战决心方案风险评估方法,从而给出了海上编队作战风险控制方法;最后,通过一个案例分析说明了所提方法的有效性。In view of the risk management in operations at sea based on information system-of-systems operations,comprehensively exploiting the modern naval warfare theory and the risk management theory,the risk identification,assessment and control in the risk management when a warship formation operates at sea are studied.First at all,centered on the commanding activities at sea after deciding to operate at sea and realizing the decision to operate at sea,the main risk elements faced by the informationized warship formation are analyzed and an index system of operation resolution scheme risk assessment for the warship formation is built.Based on the above,by comprehensively using the fuzzy evaluation theory,an operation resolution scheme risk assessment method is put forward based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,giving an operation risk control method for the warship formation.Finally,a case study is used to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：体系作战 舰艇编队 作战决心方案 风险评估 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]