中美电力消费和经济增长关系的协整分析对比  

Comparative Study of Relationship Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth of China and US Based on Cointegrational Analysis

作　　者：冯静静[1] 陈秉谱[1] 马丁丑[1] 孟繁良 

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中广核研究院有限公司,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2016年第3期288-292,354,共6页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：甘肃省社会科学规划基金重大项目"甘肃省建设全国重要生态安全屏障对策研究"(编号:12ZD08);国家林业局项目"甘肃省集体林权制度改革监测"(编号:2014FMA-7)

摘　　要：选取1978—2014年的统计数据,构建多变量的生产函数模型,使用约翰逊协整检验法和基于VECM(向量误差修正模型)的长短期格兰杰因果关系检验进行实证分析。结果显示,中美经济增长、电力消费、专利数量和资本存量之间存在长期协整关系,电力消费既不是中国经济增长的格兰杰原因,也不是美国经济增长的格兰杰原因,资本存量是中美经济增长的长期格兰杰原因。即中美两国不是能源依赖性经济增长模式:中国科技刺激经济增长的程度比美国的大,中国资本投入是电力消费的短期格兰杰原因;美国经济增长是电力消耗的短期格兰杰原因,但电力消耗不是经济增长的格兰杰原因。从中国经济的现状和特点出发,结合可持续发展的有关理论,提出了发展中国经济的建议。This paper constructed the multi variable production model and used Johansen - Jaselius cointegration test method and causality test of Granger model by VECM model based on the statistical data of 1978 -2014. The results showed that the economic growth, electricity consumption, number of patents and capital stock of China and US were long - term cointegrational. Electricity consumption was not the Granger cause of the growth of the China and US economy, and capital stock was a long- term cointegration Granger reason for the growth of China and US, it was proved that China and US economy were not energy dependent. The extent of economic growth of science and technology in China was much greater than that of the US. China capital investment was the short - term Granger reason for electricity consumption, and US economic growth was the short - term Granger reason for electricity consumption, but power consumption was not the Granger cause of economic growth. At last, according to the present situation and characteristics of Chinese economy, some suggestions about the development of Chinese economy were put forward based on the theory of sustainable development.

关 键 词：中美对比 电力消费 协整分析 格兰杰检验 

分 类 号：F014.5[经济管理—政治经济学] TM92[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动]