基于边限检验的中国旅游业发展影响因素研究  

Study on Influencing Factors of Development of China's Tourism Industry Based on Bounds Test

作　　者：吴良平[1,2] 张健[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川师范大学商学院,四川成都610101 [2]四川师范大学可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室&数学与软件科学学院,四川成都610068

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2016年第3期359-364,共6页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:11371267);可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室项目(编号:J2012N08)

摘　　要：采用边限检验方法探讨了基础设施、服务设施、经济水平三种影响因素与中国旅游业之间是否存在长期的均衡关系,分析了三种影响因素对中国入境旅游业和国内旅游业的长期和短期影响效果。结果表明:1入境旅游业和国内旅游业均与基础设施、服务设施、经济水平三种影响因素存在长期的协整关系。2就中国旅游业而言,适当提高饭店档次,增加中低档饭店规模,提升交通运输能力,加大旅游事业经济投入能对中国旅游事业发展起到很好的促进作用。This paper used the bounds test approach to explore whether there was a long- run relationship between China＇s tourism industry and the three influencing factors of infrastructure, service facility and economic level, then analyzed the long- run and short - run effects by the three influencing factors of China＇s inbound tourism and domestic tourism, based on the annual sample data of China＇s tourism industry and the three influencing factors. The results showed： （1） Long - run cointegration existed between inbound tourism, domestic tourism and the three influencing factors. （2）Appropriately raising the hotel grade, increasing the low - grade hotel scale, enhancing the transport capacity and increasing investment in tourism economy could get very good role in promoting China＇s tourism industry.

关 键 词：入境旅游 国内旅游 影响因素 边限检验 

分 类 号：F592.3[经济管理—旅游管理]