中国旅游业发展现状研究  

Research on the Development of China's Tourism Industry

作　　者：陈憧[1] 杨建龙[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明650093 [2]国务院发展研究中心产业经济研究部,北京100010

出　　处：《价值工程》2016年第6期219-222,共4页Value Engineering

摘　　要：自2000年以来中国旅游业在GDP不断提升,产业规模不断扩大,中国国内游和收入不断增加,中国旅游业已经成为服务业中最具有活力和发展潜力的产业之一。经过对中国旅游业收入组成的分析,发现因私出境成为国内旅游的主要增长点,城镇居民的旅游消费支出是我国旅游收入主要组成部分。使用ARIMA时间序列模型对中国旅游业收入进行预测结果显示,到2020年中国旅游业仍处于高速发展阶段。Since 2000, China＇s tourism industry has been increasing in GDP, the industry scale is expanding constantly, the domestic tourism and income are increasing, China＇s tourism has become one of the most dynamic and potential industries in the service industry.Through the analysis of the income of Chinese tourism industry, it is found that the main growth point of China＇s tourism has become the main growth point. The ARIMA time series model is used to forecast the revenue of China＇s tourism industry. The tourism industry in China is still in the stage of rapid development by 2020.

关 键 词：中国旅游业 人均旅游支出 出境游 旅游收入 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]