中美双边贸易利益分配格局解构——基于GVC分解的视角  

Deconstructing Distribution Pattern of Sino-US Bilateral Trade Interest from Perspective of Global Value Chains

作　　者：葛明[1] 赵素萍[2] 林玲[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院 [2]四川外国语大学国际商学院 [3]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2016年第2期46-57,136,共12页World Economy Studies

基　　金：重庆社会科学规划项目(项目编号:2015BS072;2015PY50);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(项目编号:SWU1509516;SWU1509437);国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:11BJY113);国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目(项目编号:11&ZD008)的支持

摘　　要：全球价值链分工背景下,重复计算和价值转移问题影响了双边贸易利益的识别。在多区域投入产出框架下,文章拓展了双边贸易增加值的分解模型,从总量、国别、产业等三个层面解构了1995~2011年中美双边贸易利益的分配格局。结论表明：（1）平均而言,中美出口额的23%、进口额的13%、贸易差额的25%是由日本、韩国、中国台湾、加拿大、墨西哥等国家和地区的价值转移创造的,多边贸易利益已深度融入双边贸易格局;（2）中美双方在2011年互为最重要的中间要素支持国,双边贸易互补性增强,贸易利益相互交织程度增加;（3）中国大部分产业的出口国内增加值率显著低于美国,特别是电子及光学设备等主要顺差的产业,国外价值贡献率高达33%,而服务产品部门基本呈现逆差状态。所以,推进贸易自由化和便利化改革以及构建自由开放的外贸环境符合各国的共同利益;而中国亟需提升制造业的国际分工地位和服务业的国内价值含量。In the context of global value chains,double counting and transfer of value have a marked impact on the recognition of bilateral trade interest. Based on multi-region input-output analysis,this paper extends decomposition model of bilateral value-added in trade,and deconstructs distribution pattern of Sino-US bilateral trade interest in 1995 ~ 2011 at three levels( including total trade,country,and business). Results indicate that:( 1) on average,23% of exports,13% of imports,and 25% of trade balance between China and the United States are created by transfer of value from Japan,Korea,Taiwan,Canada and Mexico,with multilateral trade interest being involved deeper and deeper into bilateral trade;( 2) in 2011,China and the United States are major intermediate factor supporters to each other,enhancing trade complementarities and more closely interconnected interests;( 3)most industries in China have a significantly lower value-added rate of export than those in United States,especially in electron optical equipment industry with great trade surplus. Therefore,trade liberalization and facilitation reform,and building free and open trade environment serve the interest of all countries. Meanwhile,how to improve the international division of manufacturing industry and domestic value content in service industry have becomes China's important task ahead.

关 键 词：全球生产网络 贸易失衡 双边附加值贸易 世界投入产出表 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]