基于牧户行为的草地管理模式--以西藏自治区为例  

Grassland management of herdsmen's decision-making——A case of Tibetan Plateau

作　　者：覃照素[1,2] 黄远林[2] 李祥妹[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510275 [2]钦州学院资源与环境学院,广西钦州535099 [3]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095 [4]南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《草业科学》2016年第2期313-321,共9页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：国家自然基金面上项目--生态系统服务认知、农户行为选择与生物多样性保护:路径与反馈--以西藏高原为例(71573127);国家社会科学基金重大特别委托项目--“西藏项目”:“十二五”期间西藏小城镇建设与发展研究(XZ2112);国家环保公益性行业科研专项项目--西藏地区生态承载力与可持续发展模式研究(201209032)

摘　　要：本研究利用产量和利润最大化理论,基于随机抽样调查构建多元选择模型,探讨不同类型牧户放牧决策差异及导致牧户过度放牧的内在机制,分析牧民家庭收入、畜牧业科技推广、草地管理投入、牧户兼业行为和风险意识等变量对牧户放牧决策的影响,模拟不同政策组合下过度放牧牧户降低牲畜存栏量的意愿。研究表明,1)牧户生产决策受畜产品价格影响大,然而,不同质量畜产品价格差异小,导致牧民忽略畜产品品质而过度追求存栏量,引致草地禁牧政策失效;2)牦牛饲养比重对牧户减少牲畜存量的边际倾向值最大,比重每增加1单位,牧户意愿降低牲畜存栏量5.684单位,由于牦牛饲养草地需求较多,对是否降低存栏量敏感;3)大部分牧户倾向于选择经济效益,寻找兼顾生态与经济,能够有效提高牧户参与的区域生态经济发展战略是未来西藏牧区生态保护与经济发展策略的核心。The study explores the differences of various types of herbsman＇s decision-making and the internal mechanism leading to overgraze employing yield and profit maximization theory. A random sample survey was used to construct multi-choice model. The study also analyzes the impact factors including variables of family income, animal h havior, and risk usbandry science and technology promotion, inputs of grassland management, industry be- awareness on herbsman＇s grazing decision-making. The empirical results showed that. 1） Herders＇ production decisions were significantly affected by livestock price. However, due to the small price differences between the different quality livestock, herders pursued the breeding stock excessively instead of product＇s quality, which led to the failure of grassland grazing policy. 2）The proportion of Yak rearing had maximum marginal effects on breeding stock. Herdsmen would reduce 5.684 unit of breeding stock if increased 1 unit rearing proportion. 3）The majority of herders tended to choose the economic benefits, and looking for ecological benefits simutaneously. Effective improving the the core of the future participation of herders in pastoral areas of Tibet ecological protection and economic development strategies.

关 键 词：牧户行为选择 过度放牧 草地管理 脆弱生态区 西藏高原 

分 类 号：S812.5[农业科学—草业科学]