从我国居民肉类与粮食产量和消耗量分析农业结构调整的必要性  

Adjustment of Chinese agricultural structure from the perspective of grain production and consumption of meat in China

作　　者：金藏玉 林慧龙[1] 王成纲 

机构地区：[1]草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室兰州大学草地农业科技学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]美国德州理工大学农业和应用经济系,德克萨斯拉伯克79409

出　　处：《草业科学》2016年第2期330-337,共8页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室重点项目"在开放市场下牛羊肉对猪肉的替代动态均衡研究"(SKLGAE201502)

摘　　要：我国经济的发展促使居民膳食结构升级换代成为一种不可逆转的趋势。本研究试图从农业系统食物产出中的肉食和粮食产出分析我国现行农业系统的结构性问题与缺陷。采用H-P滤波分析,通过对我国耗粮型和非耗粮型肉类产量以及粮食的稳定性与发展趋势进行研究发现:1)1992-2012年间,我国人均粮食消耗量、人均耗粮型肉类消耗量和人均非耗粮型肉类消耗量之比由1992年的70.53∶6.36∶1变化为2012年的9.37∶2.68∶1,人均粮食消耗量在人们膳食结构中显著降低,肉类消耗逐步上升;2)目前我国肉类产量处于波动上升阶段,随着肉类产量和消耗量大幅增加,继而使得粮食消耗增加;3)粮食产量稳步增长,但自2000年以后,我国粮食增产的潜力在逐渐减小。因此,在我国居民膳食结构调整的现实需求下,肉类需求的上升和粮食增长潜力减小的矛盾逐渐凸显,这使得降低动物粮食需求成为必要,增加食草性的非耗粮型肉类的产出,发展草地农业成为了可选的途径。With the rapid development of Chinese economy, upgrading of dietary structure has become an irre- versible trend. The paper aimsto analyze the structural problems of Chinese agricultural system from the per- spective of meat and grain production. H-P filter and comparative analysis areadopted to analyzethe stability and development trend of Chinese grain-consumption and non-grain-consumption meat production.The results indi- cated that the ratio among Chinese per capita consumption of grain, per capita consumption of non-grain-con- sumption meat and per capita consumption of grain-consumption meat had been changed from 70.53 ： 6.36 ： 1 to 9.37 ： 2.68 ： 1 during 1992 and 2012. This revealed that Chinese per capita consumption of grain was signifi- cantly reduced in people＇s diet whereas the meat consumption gradually increased. Chinese meat production fluctuated in recent years. A substantial increase in meat production and a large increase in meat consumption, in turn, madean inevitable increase in food consumption. Grain production increased steadily but the potential for grain production had been gradually reduced since 2000. Therefore, under the practical needs of the adjustment of Chinese residents＇ dietary structure, the conflict between the rising demand of meat and the decreasing supply potential of grain gradually stand out, which makes the reduced demand for grain becomes necessary. Under the pressure of huge grain demand, increasing the production of non-grain-consumption mutton and beef, developing pastoral agriculture become optional ways.

关 键 词：耗粮型和非耗粮型肉类产量 H-P滤波法 农业结构调整 草地农业 

分 类 号：F321[经济管理—产业经济]