山东省工业用地规模合理性及扩张驱动力分析  

Rationality evaluation and driving force of industrial land expansion in Shandong Province

作　　者：彭山桂[1,2] 汪应宏[1,2] 陈晨[3] 王健[1,2] 雷刚 吴先华 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学江苏省资源环境信息工程重点实验室,徐州221116 [3]济南铁路局土地管理局,济南250001 [4]山东省建设发展研究院,济南250001

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第2期228-238,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171118);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(KYZZ15_0379);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(SZBF2011-6-B35)

摘　　要：为界定工业用地合理规模,明确合理、不合理工业用地规模扩张的驱动力,科学管控工业用地供给,本文从地方政府工业用地供给追求经济增长的现实目标出发,对工业用地规模扩张进行考察,采用2001-2012年山东省地级市层面的数据,利用门限回归模型对各地级市工业用地规模的合理性进行了分析。同时,对合理、不合理的工业用地规模扩张的驱动力进行了分类实证研究。研究结果表明:1山东省不合理的工业用地规模总体呈下降的趋势,由2001年的212.03 km2下降至2012年的100.74 km2;不合理工业用地规模占工业用地规模总量的比重由2001年的46.49%下降至2012年的9.19%;不合理工用地主要集中在山东省西部和南部地区;2合理的工业用地规模扩张主要源于经济、人口因素的驱动,不合理的工业用地扩张主要源于财税制度、地方官员政绩考核体系等制度因素的驱动;3调控工业用地规模应保证土地—资本配置关系处于合理区间,以财政及官员晋升考核制度改革为基础手段。This paper investigated the scale of industrial land from the view of local government behavior in land supply and adopted panel data for all cities in Shandong, China from 2001 to 2012.We used threshold regression modeling to analyze the reasonable scale of industrial land for all cities in Shandong and studied the classification and research of driving forces of rational and irrational industrial land. The results reveal that according to the different ways of per land area industrial capital stock on industrial economic output, the scale of industrial land can be divided into rational and irrational types. There is a positive effect on industrial economy while per land area industrial capital stock is greater than 40.791 billion/km2 in Shandong, and it can be called a reasonable scale while the scale of industrial land is in this interval; otherwise it is known as an unreasonable scale.From 2001 to 2012, the scale of irrational industrial land of Shandong decreased from 212.03 km2 to 100.74 km2, while irrational industrial land accounts for the proportion of the total amount of industrial land that decreased from 46.49% to 9.19%; the scale of irrational industrial land was mainly concentrated in western and southern Shandong province. Rational industrial land expansion mainly was the result of economic and demographic factors, while irrational industrial land expansion was mainly driven by institutional factors such as tax system and performance evaluation system of local officials, and other systems. Regulation and control of industrial land expansion should ensure land-capital allocation relation within a reasonable range, by means of reform in financial and official promotion appraisal system to constrain local government＇s irrational land supply behavior and prevent its impact on industrial land expansion.

关 键 词：土地经济 工业用地规模 合理性 扩张驱动力 门限回归 面板数据 山东省 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济] F301.2