当前银行风险显露下需审慎采行货币策略  

Banking Risk Appearing and Central Bank Should Take Cautious Monetary Policy

作　　者：顾建光[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学 [2]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院经济政策研究所

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2016年第1期164-170,共7页

摘　　要：中国经济结构正在调整,经济增速放缓。最近几年以来,银行业的业绩出现下滑的趋势,银行不良资产率上升,金融风险显露。论文分析相关现状,透析形成这样趋势的深层原因,如:实体经济下行对银行业的影响,银行业界竞争加剧,利率市场化的冲击,等等。论文进而指出,在这种情况下,中国人民银行的货币政策也正处于需要调整的阶段,一些原有的政策模式不再适应当下的形势。论文通过对现状透视,借鉴金融危机前后美联储货币政策的经验教训,提出相应的应对策略措施。如:目前存款准备金率仍处于一个高位,央行应当适当下调存款准备金率,以促进商业银行调整盈利结构;人民银行在制定利率政策时应当特别慎重,除了需要考量GDP增长率、通货膨胀率等因素外,还需要对市场结构性风险进行评估(包括银行业的绩效,汇率影响、资金流动等);观察货币政策效果时应当有足够的耐心,可以预先通过建模分析货币政策效果的滞后期;需对次级贷款及时监管,避免金融风险的扩大和金融危机出现。Now the economic structure is undergoing an adjustment and economic growth rate is slowing down. In resent years, banking performances slides and banking debts grow up. The article analysis the situation to find the factors which cause the tendency, such as slowing down economy, stronger competition among different banks and marketization of bank interest. Under the situation, the monitory policy of the Central Bank is at the stage of adjustment, some old policy model is not suitable to the present situation. Based on the analysis, the article will give some strategic measures. Fore example, the high bank reserve rate should be cut to a lower position, for promoting the profit making structure of commercial banks. During interest rate policy making, the central bank should pay more cautions, to consider multi indicators and make evaluation for market structure risk, and make stricter supervision to avoid the happen of some financial risk and crisis

关 键 词：银行业金融风险 审慎货币政策 适当金融监管 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]