基于系统动力学的中国医药制造业可持续发展潜力研究  

Research on the Sustainable Development Potential of Pharmaceutical Manufacturing in China Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：葛志远[1] 刘奕汝[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2016年第2期54-59,66,共7页Forum on Science and Technology in China

摘　　要：本文探讨了当今中国医药制造业的可持续发展潜力及其影响因素的作用。首先对中国医药制造业的发展现状和存在的问题进行了分析,然后结合前人的研究成果确定了中国医药制造业可持续发展潜力的衡量和主要因素体系,对其建立了系统动力学模型。基于动力学模型的模拟分析结果表明,科技成果转化率、生物医药规模、老龄化趋势和资金进入壁垒对中国医药制造业可持续发展潜力影响很大。研究结果说明,政府和企业应该基于上述方面来使医药制造业的发展和市场需求相协调,其研发活动能更有效率和效果,促进产业的可持续发展。This paper explored the sustainable development potential and factors influenced of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in China. Firstly,the current situation and the existing problems of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in China were analyzed. Secondly,influence factors of industrial development potential were analyzed based on literature reviews and correlation analysis. Then based on system dynamics, the sustainable development potential model of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was built. The simulation results show that the conversion of scientific and technological achievements,the scale of bio-pharmaceutical,aging and the barriers to entry of fund impact strongly on the sustainable development potential in China. According to the results,adjustment or measures would promote the development of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry if coordinated with the market demand; and the RD can be more efficient and effective.

关 键 词：系统动力学 医药制造业 可持续发展潜力 科技成果转化率 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济] G301[文化科学]