经济增长、城镇化的机制及“新常态”下的转型策略——理论解析与实证推论  

MECHANISMS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND URBANIZATION,AND TRANSFORMATION STRATEGIES UNDER THE "NEW NORMAL" :THEORETICAL ANALYSIS AND EMPIRICAL INFERENCE

作　　者：陈旭[1] 赵民[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院

出　　处：《城市规划》2016年第1期9-18,24,共11页City Planning Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51378138);同济大学人文社会学科跨学科研究基金

摘　　要：分析经济增长和城镇化的经济本质,对其发展机制进行理论解析和实证推论;认为制度变迁是影响其发展的关键因素,而制度变迁的方向应对称于当期的禀赋条件,制度有效性将影响制度变迁的效果。基于我国已经发生了重大变化的禀赋条件,"新常态"阶段将是一个经济发展中枢下移的阶段,传统的"需求侧"强刺激增长路径难以为继,必须转向适度扩大内需和提高长期供给能力的新发展模式。长期供给能力来自于人力资本积累和技术、制度创新带来的全要素生产率提高。因此,从重视物质资本积累转向注重人力资本积累,从过于依赖土地等资源投入转向"存量规划"和空间资源优化配置等,构成了新的发展战略指向。This paper analyzes the economic essence of economic growth and urbanization, and conducts a theoretical analysis and empirical inference on their development mechanisms. The institutional change is regarded as the most important factor for economic endogenous development, the direction of institutional change should be generated endogenously in the current endowment conditions, and the effects of institutional change are affected by the effectiveness of ＂incentive compatibility＂ and ＂participation constraint＂. Based on that China＇s endowment conditions have changed, the so called ＂New Normal＂ stage will be a stage of economic development slowdown. The traditional growth path characterized by strong stimulation on the ＂demand side＂ is unsustainable, so it is necessary to turn to the new development pattern of expanding domestic demand moderately and improving the capacity of long-term supply. The long-term supply capacity comes from the TFP （Total Factor Productivity） improvement which can be brought about by the accumulation of human capital as well as technical and institutional innovation, Therefore, this paper concludes that the development should change from the pattern of ＂emphasizing physical capital accumulation＂ to that of ＂focusing on human capital accumulation＂, and from excessively depending on the input of land and other resources to ＂stock-based planning＂ and optimal allocation of spatial resource, which should be the new strategic guidelines for the development.

关 键 词：经济增长 城镇化 发展机制 禀赋条件 新常态 转型策略 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济] F124