基于气温与经济增长的用电需求预测  

Forecast of electricity demand based on temperature and economic growth

作　　者：王宝[1] 陈驰[2] 叶彬[1] 葛斐[1] 杨敏[1] 杜海红[3] 

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力公司经济技术研究院,合肥230022 [2]河海大学能源与电气学院,南京211100 [3]国网安徽省电力公司,合肥230061

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2016年第1期14-17,共4页Power Demand Side Management

摘　　要：经济新常态和近年气温大波动大大增加了用电需求高精度预测的难度,不考虑经济走势或忽略气温因素的传统预测手段和智能算法无法满足电力市场预测工作的实际需要。借助于计量经济方法,构建了基于气温与经济增长的用电需求预测模型,并以安徽省月度全社会用电量预测为例加以分析说明。结果表明,该模型具有预测过程简单、实现便捷、预测效果好等优点,能够为能源主管部门和电力市场分析人员开展年度内用电需求预测提供一种有效方法。Economic new normal and temperature fluctuationin recent years greatly increase the difficulty in forecasting electricitydemand with high accuracy. Conventional methods and intelligent al-gorithms with economic trend or termperature don＇t consider fail tomeet the real requirements of electricity market forecast. An electrici-ty demand forecasting model based on temperature and economicgrowth is established by using econometric method and illustrated bytaking Anhui＇s monthly whole-society electricity consumption fore-casting as an instance. Results demonstrate that this model has suchadvantages as simple forecast procedure,convenient realization andgood forecast effect and can provide an effective method for energydepartment and electricity market analysts in forecasting electricitydemand within a year.

关 键 词：用电需求 气温 经济增长 预测模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]