基于风速相关性的风电场群汇聚效应分析  

Clustering effect analysis of wind power stations based on correlation of wind speed

作　　者：黄大为[1] 曹康洋永 张旭鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学电气工程学院

出　　处：《电工电能新技术》2016年第2期18-23,共6页Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy

基　　金：吉林省科技发展规划项目(20130102026JC)

摘　　要：多个风电场汇聚后的输出功率特性具有明显的汇聚效应,这是处于不同位置风电场风能资源差异性的外在体现。本文运用Copula理论对地理位置相近地区风速的相关性进行量化分析,进行最优Copula函数类型选择以及参数的确定。通过对两两风电场风速相关性的量化分析,提出一种能够反映风电场群输出功率汇聚效应的Monte Carlo模拟方法。在已知风速历史数据的前提下,分析了场间风速含有相关性对风电场群汇集后输出功率特性的影响,从而为风电场群功率外送输电容量规划提供必要的参考。The output power of multiple wind farms has obvious clustering effect,which is the external characteristic of the wind energy resources diversity at different positions. In this paper the Copula theory is used to quantify and analyze the relativity of wind speed which has geographical proximity,and the optimal copulas function is selected and the parameters are determined. Through the quantification of the correlation of the two wind farms＇ speed,a Monte Carlo simulation method which can reflect the output power clustering effect of wind farms is proposed. With the known historical data of the wind speed,the influence of wind speed correlation to the output power characteristics of wind farms is analyzed. The results are important reference to transmission capacity programming for the wind farm group power output.

关 键 词：风力发电 风电场汇聚效应 风速相关性 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]