内蒙古1953～2013年四季平均气温演化特征研究  

The seasonal air temperature evolution in Inner Mongolia during 1953-2013

作　　者：田海峰[1,2] 牛铮[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所,遥感科学国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2016年第1期78-83,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB733405);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2014AA06A511);国家科技重大专项(14CNIC-032079-32-02)共同资助

摘　　要：利用中国气象科学数据共享服务网提供的内蒙古1953-2013年四季气温数据,综合运用M-K突变检测方法、滑动T检验方法、累积距平三种方法分别检测了四季气温的突变特征,结合最小二乘法线性拟合和R/S分析法对四季气温的变化趋势及强度进行了定量化分析,运用Morlet小波计算了四季气温的多尺度周期,利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测了四季气温的未来波动特征。结果表明:春季、秋季、冬季平均气温于20世纪80年代中后期发生增温突变,夏季平均气温于20世纪90年代初发生增温突变,置信水平均达到99%,四季平均气温呈显著的增温趋势;GM(1,1)模型预测春季、夏季、冬季平均气温将在2015年前后出现高温事件,在2018年前后出现低温事件,秋季平均气温将在2016年前后出现低温事件,在2018年前后出现高温事件,对当地的农牧业生产、生态建设等具有重要参考意义。This study was conducted in order to know the evolution feature of the seasonal mean air temperature in Inner Mongolia during 1953 -2013 under the background of global climate change. The abrupt changes of the seasonal mean temperature of air was tested using the M - K test method, sliding T - test method and accumula- ted deviation, the trends of seasonal air temperature were analyzed using linear least squares fitting, the periodic- ity characteristics of seasonal air temperature were studied using morlet wavelet analysis method, and the perio- dicity characteristics were forecasted using GM（1,1） model. The results show that average air temperatures of spring, fall and winter abruptly warmed in the late 1980s, average air temperatures of summer abruptly warmed in 1993 at the confidence levels of 99% , seasonal air temperature showed a significant warming trend. It were forecasted that spring, summer and winter average air temperature will be high in 2015, and be low in 2018, fall average air temperature will be low in 2016, and be high in 2018.

关 键 词：气温突变 HURST指数 M-K突变分析 MORLET小波 灰色预测 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]