西藏入境旅游发展与经济增长相关性分析  

The correlation between inbound tourism development and economic growth in Tibet

作　　者：张杰[1] 陈龙燕[1] 卢李朋[1] 张雅洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2016年第2期194-201,共8页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(410610174)资助

摘　　要：基于1983-2013年西藏入境旅游相关统计数据,对其近31年来入境旅游的发展进行了梳理,在此基础上分析了西藏入境旅游发展对经济增长的贡献率及其入境旅游外汇收入占地区经济增长的比重;并运用相关分析和回归分析法对入境旅游发展与经济增长的关系进行定量分析和实证检验。结果表明:1)西藏入境旅游发展具有阶段性,即波动探索阶段、持续稳定增长阶段、快速发展阶段和再度恢复阶段;2)入境旅游发展与经济增长呈显著的正相关关系,且入境旅游外汇收入每增加1个单位,经济收入增加64.431个单位;3)1983-2013年入境旅游发展对经济增长的年平均贡献率为1.20%;入境旅游外汇收入占GDP比重的年平均值为1.62%。Based on the statistical data from 1983 -2013, we analyzed the Tibet inbound tourism contribution to economic growth and inbound tourism foreign exchange revenue in GDP on the basis of organizing the develop- ment of inbound tourism in recent 31 years. And by using the correlation analysis and regression analysis we car- ried out the quantitative analysis and empirical test on the relationship between 31 years of Tibet inbound tourism development and economic growth. The results indicateed ： 1 ） Inbound tourism development in Tibet experienced fluctuation exploratory stage, sustained and stable growth stages, the rapid development stage and resume again stages. 2 ）There was a significant positive correlation between inbound tourism development and economic growth, and the inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings increased 1 units, the economic growth increased 64. 431 units. 3 ） The annual contribution rate of the of inbound tourism development to the economic growth was of 1.20% in 1983 -2013. Inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings accounted for 1.62% in annual GDP.

关 键 词：入境旅游 经济增长 相关分析 回归分析 西藏 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]