灰色理论预测煤层瓦斯涌出量的研究与应用  

Research and application of grey theory predicting coal seam gas emission

作　　者：冯亮 张立强 

机构地区：[1]开滦集团公司林西矿,河北唐山063104

出　　处：《煤炭与化工》2016年第1期44-47,共4页Coal and Chemical Industry

摘　　要：瓦斯涌出量大小受煤层埋深、开采方式、煤层倾角、瓦斯含量等多种地质因素的影响,其中一些因素影响是已知,另一些因素影响是未知。可以把采煤工作面瓦斯涌出看成一个灰色系统,煤层瓦斯的涌出是受多因素影响的。结合灰色系统预测特点,采取少量的数据去预测林西矿12号煤层开采工作面的瓦斯涌出量。按照灰色建模理论,从各种因素综合作用的最终结果出发,对林西矿12号煤层进行灰色建模。研究预测表明,灰色理论法的平均精度是96.08%,跟传统的矿山统计法(平均精度是91.4%)相比具有很高的精度,并且灰色理论法在运用的时候不用考虑过多的地质条件限制,是一种优于传统方法的预测方法,可以推广使用。Gas emission amount is affected by coal seam bury, mining method, coal seam angle and gas content and other geological factors, some of them are known and some are unknown. The mining working face gas emission was taken as grey system. Combined with the prediction features of grey system, less data was collected to predict the gas emission amount of No. 12 coal seam mining of Linxi Mine. According to the grey model theory, the No. 12 coal seam was modeled by grey theory. The result showed that the average accuracy of grey theory was 96.08%, better than the traditional mine statistical method with 91.4% average accuracy, the technology is not limited by geological factors so much, which is superior to the traditional one, with good prospect.

关 键 词：瓦斯涌出量 灰色系统预测 灰色建模 精度 预测方法 

分 类 号：TD712.3[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]