适应性预期菲利普斯曲线的微观基础和应用研究  

The Microeconomics Model of Adaptive Expectations Philips Curve and Its Application

作　　者：刘伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学,广东广州510632

出　　处：《经济视野》2015年第2期431-433,共3页Economic Vision

摘　　要：本文首先推导出了非完全信息条件下的适应性预期菲利普斯曲线；接着本文用中国1978-2013年间生产者物价指数和国内生产总值的增长率拟合适应性菲利普斯曲线，结果发现在1996年发生了结构突变，因此把样本分成了1978-1995年间与1996-2013年间两个阶段，得出了两个阶段的年均潜在经济增长率分别为6.18%和8.12%；最后，本文基于前文模型的理论推导和实证分析，给出了三个方面的相关政策建议，即监控通货膨胀、制定合理的货币政策、寻找新的经济增长点。Firstly,this paper models Adaptive Expectations Philips Curve, under imperfect information, based on three markets, which are labor market, capital market and monetary market. Then, this paper uses the growth rate of PPI and GDP from the year of 1978-2013 to fit the Adaptive Expectations Philips Curve, it suggests that Adaptive Expectations Philips Curve does exist in China. Meanwhile, this paper finds that there is a break point in 1996, so it divides the samples into two parts, which are the year of 1978-1995 and the year of 1996-2013. The result shows that the growth rate of potential output of the two samples are 6.18%, 8.12% respectively. At last, this paper proposes three policy references, which are monitoring inflation, making appropriate monetary policy and looking for a new economy growth point.

关 键 词：菲利普斯曲线 适应性预期 邹突变点检验 潜在产出增长率 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]